4 bd · 2.0 ba ·
3,092 sqft ·
Built —
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 134 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,000/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$577
Tax + insurance
−$222
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$420
Net cashflow
$781/mo
Annual
$9,377/yr
Cap rate
14.82%
Cash-on-cash
30.44%
DSCR
2.35
1% rule
1.82%
Cash to close
$30,800
Investor read
This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $781 ($9k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).
It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($97k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $97k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $4k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (2.6% local appreciation)).
Location reads 67/100 on livability (#107 in LA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
St. Mary Parish (town): math 28% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #37 of 98 in LA (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 68% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: Franklin Junior High School (math 17% / reading 27%, grade F, #153 of 218 statewide, top 72%, 211 students, 88% FRL); Franklin Senior High School (math 5% / reading 37%, grade F, #179 of 265 statewide, top 68%, 297 students, 86% FRL) — zoned schools average 87% FRL vs 68% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Zoned-school proficiency averages 22% at this address vs 34% district-wide (-12 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the St. Mary Parish average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Market conditions: 93 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 37 units permitted in St. Mary Parish in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
St. Mary County population projected at -18% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (2.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 9, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 14.8% vs local median 5.5% in Franklin — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-V5JWHA3Q30AT7S
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29