16907 Elm Grove Rd

Grangerland, TX 77302

$290,000D

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,498 sqft · Built 2024 · SingleFamily · Pending · 85 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,732/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax + insurance: −$915
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$574
• Net cashflow: $-352/mo
• Annual: $-4,224/yr
• Cap rate: 4.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.20%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.94%
• Cash to close: $81,200

Investor read

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-352 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (21.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (5.8% below list).
• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (21.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1116 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 21% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.