16907 Elm Grove Rd · Grangerland, TX 77302

$290,000

5 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,498 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 85 Days on market

Built 2024 Good condition 6,011 sqft lot $116/sqft · 9% below area Est $320k · 9% under $75/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 18% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +11.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +4.4/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this well-maintained, 2-year-old home offering a functional layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite and a secondary bedroom are conveniently located on the main floor, while three additional bedrooms and a large game room are upstairs, offering plenty of space for family and guests. The open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room create an inviting flow ideal for gatherings and entertaining. The oven and dishwasher have never been used. Step outside to a generous backyard, perfect for relaxing or outdoor activities. Residents enjoy outstanding community amenities, including walking trails, open green spaces, scenic lakes, a clubhouse, a resort-style pool, and playgrounds. Upon completion, the community will also feature two pickleball courts, a wiffle ball field, and an outdoor biergarten. This home combines modern comfort with convenience and lifestyle amenities. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

Key facts

• 6,011 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Community pool

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $290k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-357 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $227k (21.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $273k (6.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $227k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Conroe ISD (other): math 57% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #69 of 826 in TX (top 8%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.3%/yr); 1111 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($85k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 85 days — a 6% lower offer ($273k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.3% of price.

Recommended offer $226,897 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 85 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
6. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.94% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.81%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.28%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 8.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $319,547
• List price: $290,000
• Delta: -9.25%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15035 Rustic Moon Rd	0.15mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,466 (-1%)	1mo	$346,690	$141	84
14977 Rustic Moon Rd	0.14mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,466 (-1%)	1mo	$319,650	$130	83
14993 Rustic Moon Rd	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,356 (-6%)	0mo	$274,930	$117	78
16022 Tangled Vine Ln	0.27mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,360 (-6%)	0mo	$345,000	$146	73
16147 Sapphire Crest Dr	0.20mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,648 (+6%)	2mo	$400,000	$151	72
15027 Rustic Moon Rd	0.15mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,285 (-8%)	1mo	$314,370	$138	71
17155 Crimson Crest Dr	0.34mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,351 (-6%)	1mo	$349,000	$148	69
16310 Vivid Creek Ct	0.23mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,285 (-8%)	1mo	$315,000	$138	67
15190 Wild Gully Way	0.48mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,392 (-4%)	1mo	$359,200	$150	63
16189 Sepia Manor St	0.51mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,318 (-7%)	1mo	$349,355	$151	56
15166 Wild Gully Way	0.43mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,787 (+12%)	1mo	$379,460	$136	53
16156 Sepia Manor St	0.67mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,218 (-11%)	2mo	$289,250	$130	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.3% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -24.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-68,566
• Equity at exit: $43,240

10-year hold

• IRR: -18.9%
• Equity multiple: -0.04×
• Total profit: $-84,165
• Equity at exit: $25,074

Cash invested: $81,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77302

• Rents YoY: 3.3%
• Active inventory: 1111
• Price-to-rent: 8.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,725 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,521
• Tax from tax record: −$794 /mo · $9,524/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$572
• Net cashflow: $-357

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,178

Max offer price $226,897

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-193	-5% $-275	+0% $-357	+5% $-439	+10% $-521
Rent	-10% $-573	-5% $-465	+0% $-357	+5% $-250	+10% $-142
Rate	-1.0pp $-211	-0.5pp $-283	base $-357	+0.5pp $-432	+1.0pp $-509

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,500
• Closing costs: $8,700
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15447 Dapple Bluff Ln Conroe, TX	4.0	2.5	2265	$2,900	$1.28	44d	1	0.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingpool

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-15
   price $290,000 971-char remark

   Show marketing remark (971 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained, 2-year-old home offering a functional layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite and a secondary bedroom are conveniently located on the main floor, while three additional bedrooms and a large game room are upstairs, offering plenty of space for family and guests. The open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room create an inviting flow ideal for gatherings and entertaining. The oven and dishwasher have never been used. Step outside to a generous backyard, perfect for relaxing or outdoor activities. Residents enjoy outstanding community amenities, including walking trails, open green spaces, scenic lakes, a clubhouse, a resort-style pool, and playgrounds. Upon completion, the community will also feature two pickleball courts, a wiffle ball field, and an outdoor biergarten. This home combines modern comfort with convenience and lifestyle amenities. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

2. 2026-03-03
   listed $300,000 Active 971-char remark

   Show marketing remark (971 chars)

   Welcome to this well-maintained, 2-year-old home offering a functional layout perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The primary suite and a secondary bedroom are conveniently located on the main floor, while three additional bedrooms and a large game room are upstairs, offering plenty of space for family and guests. The open-concept kitchen, dining, and family room create an inviting flow ideal for gatherings and entertaining. The oven and dishwasher have never been used. Step outside to a generous backyard, perfect for relaxing or outdoor activities. Residents enjoy outstanding community amenities, including walking trails, open green spaces, scenic lakes, a clubhouse, a resort-style pool, and playgrounds. Upon completion, the community will also feature two pickleball courts, a wiffle ball field, and an outdoor biergarten. This home combines modern comfort with convenience and lifestyle amenities. Don’t miss the opportunity to make it yours!

3. 2025-12-01
   historical
4. 2025-11-05
   listed $337,000 Active
5. 2025-10-26
   historical
6. 2025-08-13
   price $337,000
7. 2025-06-23
   listed $353,700 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $9,524 · $794/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $9,524 · $794/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,705
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,245
• − Property taxes: −$9,524
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,616
• − Management: −$2,616
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$8,436
• Taxable loss: −$9,083
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,180
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,107/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 80/100 None rehab

This well-maintained, 2-year-old home is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. It offers a functional layout and is perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The highest-ROI updates would be painting, landscaping, new flooring, and new kitchen appliances.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Painting exterior and interior — Enhances curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and adds value ↑
• Both New flooring in high-traffic areas — Improves appearance and reduces maintenance ↑
• Resale New kitchen appliances — Modernizes the kitchen and appeals to potential buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Conroe ISD
• NCES district ID: 4815000
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $71,541
• Composite: 50.65/100
• National rank: #1833
• State rank: #69 of 826 in TX

Livability — Grangerland

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 21,546
• Household income: $84,673
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 205.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (63%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 63% Hispanic / Latino 29% Two or more races 19% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Italian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 13% · Canada, Vietnam, China
• Languages at home: 78% English-only · Spanish 20% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.56%
• Current HPI: 262.1879
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.30%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-18.0% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-15 Price Changed $290,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-03 Listed $300,000 HARMLS
• 2025-12-01 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-11-05 Listed $337,000 HARMLS
• 2025-10-26 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $337,000 HARMLS
• 2025-06-23 Listed $353,700 HARMLS

Property tax history

+292.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $9,524 · +699.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.