829-831 W Pine St

Fairview-Ferndale, PA 17866

$140,000C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Built 1920 · Other · Active · 233 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,246/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax + insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $159/mo
• Annual: $1,914/yr
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.88%
• DSCR: 1.22
• 1% rule: 0.89%
• Cash to close: $39,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (11.0% below list).
• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shamokin Area SD (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #450 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Shamokin Area El Sch (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,146 of 1,518 statewide, top 76%, 832 students, 100% FRL); Shamokin Area Ms (math 12% / reading 40%, grade F, #412 of 512 statewide, top 81%, 346 students, 100% FRL); Shamokin Area Hs (math 42% / reading 30%, grade F, #300 of 437 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 57% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $140k implies a 509% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.