829-831 W Pine St · Fairview-Ferndale, PA 17866

$140,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Other · 233 Days on market

Built 1920 $70/sqft · 208% above area

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• Appreciation +4.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0

Listing remarks

✨Ready to occupy or rent immediately! ✨ … This newly renovated home is ready for a new owner. 🏠 The main floor consists of a living room, dining room, kitchen with appliances, laundry room/office and a full bathroom. On the second floor, you’ll find 3 hall-entered bedrooms 🛏️ and a 2nd full bathroom. There is a finished walk-up attic that offers endless possibilities -- hang out area for the kids, additional living space or extra storage space. The low-maintenance backyard 🌳 is ready for your creative touch making it a perfect spot for relaxing, entertaining, or outdoor fun. The unfinished basement provides additional storage space. Accepting Cash or Conventional offers only!

Key facts

• Built 1920
• Listed 232 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $159 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $125k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $123k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Shamokin Area SD (town): math 19% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #450 of 539 in PA (top 84%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Shamokin Area El Sch (math 22% / reading 36%, grade F, #1,146 of 1,518 statewide, top 76%, 832 students, 100% FRL); Shamokin Area Ms (math 12% / reading 40%, grade F, #412 of 512 statewide, top 81%, 346 students, 100% FRL); Shamokin Area Hs (math 42% / reading 30%, grade F, #300 of 437 statewide, top 70%, 702 students, 80% FRL) — zoned schools average 93% FRL vs 57% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 81 units permitted in Northumberland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.3%/yr); year-one equity from $968 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Northumberland County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 233 days — a 12% lower offer ($123k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $14k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $23k; list at $140k implies a 509% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $123,200 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 233 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.66%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.88%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $45,441
• List price: $140,000
• Delta: 208.09%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 11 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.29% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-2,292
• Equity at exit: $31,838

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.52×
• Total profit: $20,336
• Equity at exit: $31,792

Cash invested: $39,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Pennsylvania: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; Philadelphia has eviction-court diversion + some protections; otherwise moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 17866

• Home prices YoY: -1.1%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,246 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$33 /mo · $391/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$262
• Net cashflow: $159

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,044

Max offer price $140,000

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $239	-5% $199	+0% $159	+5% $120	+10% $80
Rent	-10% $61	-5% $110	+0% $159	+5% $209	+10% $258
Rate	-1.0pp $230	-0.5pp $195	base $159	+0.5pp $123	+1.0pp $86

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $35,000
• Closing costs: $4,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2 S Vine St Shamokin, PA	3.0	1.0	1450	$975	$0.67	45d	1	0.92mi
609 E Commerce St Shamokin, PA	4.0	1.5	1668	$1,500	$0.90	45d	1	0.99mi

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $140,000 Active 233 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $140,000 Active 230 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $140,000 Active 229 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $140,000 Active 228 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $140,000 Active 227 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $140,000 Active 226 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $140,000 Active 224 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $140,000 Active 223 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $140,000 Active 220 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $140,000 Active 219 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $140,000 Active 218 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $140,000 Active 214 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $140,000 Active 213 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $140,000 Active 212 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $140,000 Active 211 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $140,000 Active 210 DOM
17. 2026-03-16
    status Active
18. 2026-03-01
    status Pending
19. 2026-01-15
    price $140,000
20. 2025-10-17
    listed $153,500 Active
21. 2025-10-15
    historical
22. 2025-06-25
    listed $165,000 Active
23. 2024-06-02
    listed $172,000 Active
24. 2023-09-22
    soldstatus $23,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast PA · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $391 · $33/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,302 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$910/yr (+$76/mo · 232.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,956
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,842
• − Property taxes: −$391
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,196
• − Management: −$1,196
• − Depreciation: −$4,073
• Taxable loss: −$443
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$106
• After-tax cash flow: $2,020/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shamokin Area SD
• NCES district ID: 4221240
• Math proficiency: 19% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $35,380
• Composite: 24.31/100
• National rank: #7709
• State rank: #450 of 539 in PA

Livability — Fairview-Ferndale

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Fairview-Ferndale, PA
• Population (ZIP): 9,808

Population outlook (Northumberland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 90,896 people
• By 2030: 89,084 · -2.0%
• By 2040: 84,822 · -6.7%
• By 2050: 80,521 · -11.4%
• By 2075: 72,152 · -20.6%
• By 2100: 62,257 · -31.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 15% Hispanic / Latino 4% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 12% Iranian 4% Subsaharan African 2%
• Foreign-born: 1%
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Northumberland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.9) · D 29.6% · R 69.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.8pp · 2024: -39.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.9 2020: R+38.5 2016: R+43.6 2012: R+19.4 2008: R+13.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.29%
• Current HPI: 111.3788
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.68%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in PA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$309B
▸Insurance	2	$27B
▸Telecommunications / Media	1	$124B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$22B
▸Financial Services	1	$20B
▸Chemicals / Materials	1	$18B

Price history

+508.7% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Relisted — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-01 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $140,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-17 Listed $153,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-15 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-06-25 Listed $165,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2024-06-02 Listed $172,000 CSVBR
• 2023-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $23,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2026): $391 · +2.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.