3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,280 sqft ·
Built 2001
· SingleFamily
· Active
· 26 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,787/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$912
Tax + insurance
−$290
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$375
Net cashflow
$209/mo
Annual
$2,513/yr
Cap rate
7.74%
Cash-on-cash
5.16%
DSCR
1.23
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$48,720
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $174k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $209 ($3k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $174k).
It's been on market 26 days — a 2% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $171k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 69/100 on livability (#437 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools D.
Archer City ISD (rural): math 56% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #79 of 826 in TX (top 10%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.8%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 25 units permitted in Archer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
Archer County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 7.8% rent growth), your $49k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.7% in Wichita Falls — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Minor: kitchen cabinets
— slight wear
Minor: kitchen countertops
— slight wear
Minor: kitchen appliances
— slight wear
CashFlowRE · CFR-V5Y4CM3JGYA0G6
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29