18 Mystery Ct

Sleepy Hollow Lake, NY 12015

$350,000C

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Pending · 45 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,250/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax + insurance: −$583
• HOA: −$192
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $-43/mo
• Annual: $-519/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.93%
• Cash to close: $98,000

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-519/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (7.1% below list).
• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $325k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Coxsackie-Athens Central School District (town): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #384 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $350k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.3% in Sleepy Hollow Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.