18 Mystery Ct · Sleepy Hollow Lake, NY 12015

$350,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,112 sqft · SingleFamily · 45 Days on market

Built 1994 Good condition 0.41 ac lot $166/sqft · 32% below area Est $513k · 32% under $192/mo HOA · 6% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +12.6/30.0
• Appreciation +8.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.3/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• DSCR +3.8/10.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

SELLER RELOCATING !! HUGE PRICE REDUCTION FOR QUICK SALE !!!! Meticulously maintained Raised Ranch set on a wooded lot in Sleepy Hollow Lake. Enjoy access to a private motor boat lake offering the best of year round recreation. The open concept main level features an updated kitchen with granite counters and seamless flow into the dining + living areas. Step out onto new trex deck perfect for morning coffee or entertaining guests in a peaceful natural setting. This upper level offers 3 beds, 2 full baths. The finished lower level provides flexible space to suit your needs- currently spacious family room with woodstove, plus ample storage and laundry area. A solid move in ready home with

Key facts

• Wooded lot
• Updated kitchen
• New trex deck

Tags

• WOODED LOT
• PRIVATE MOTOR BOAT LAKE
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• NEW TREX DECK
• SPACIOUS FAMILY ROOM
• AMPLE STORAGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features include pool, clubhouse, fishing, gated entry, lake, park, playground
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with annual fee; Association amenities include boating, beach access and rights, clubhouse, gated entry, picnic area, playground, pool, recreation facilities, tennis courts, basketball court

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Security: Gated community
• Utilities: Private water; Private sewer; 200+ amp electric service with circuit breakers; Cable available
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Wood siding; Asphalt roof; Slab foundation; Built using wood siding construction
• Exterior features: Deck; Cul-de-sac lot; Wooded lot; Community pool access

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher, Microwave, Range, Refrigerator
• Flooring: Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Baseboard heating; Oil heating; Wood stove
• Interior features: Finished basement; Dishwasher, Microwave, Range, Refrigerator
• Laundry & utility: Washer and Dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $350k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-519/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $344k (1.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $325k (7.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $325k (7.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 2.3% in Sleepy Hollow Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Coxsackie-Athens Central School District (town): math 43% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #384 of 590 in NY (top 65%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 91 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 97 units permitted in Greene County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (5.9% local appreciation)).
• Greene County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (5.9% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $98k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 45 days — a 3% lower offer ($340k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 8 sale attempts since 22y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $170k; list at $350k implies a 106% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $325,000 (7.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 45 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 7% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.93% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.53%
• DSCR: 0.98
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $513,399
• List price: $350,000
• Delta: -31.83%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38 Ichabod Crane Cir	0.55mi	3/2.5	2,120 (+0%)	22mo	$360,000	$170	53
5 Catskill Ct	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,100 (-1%)	20mo	$449,000	$214	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.93% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.99×
• Total profit: $96,900
• Equity at exit: $218,360

10-year hold

• IRR: 15.0%
• Equity multiple: 3.94×
• Total profit: $287,926
• Equity at exit: $394,557

Cash invested: $98,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12015

• Home prices YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 91
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,250 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,835
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$438 /mo · $5,250/yr
• Insurance: −$146
• HOA: −$192
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$682
• Net cashflow: $-43

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,305

Max offer price $343,739

Occupancy floor 96%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $87,500
• Closing costs: $10,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1321 Sleepy Hollow RD Other City - Not In The State Of Florida, NY	3.0	2.0	1640	$3,250	$1.98	44d	1	1.03mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $192 · $2,304/yr

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-13
   remarks 699-char remark
2. 2026-06-13
   pricestatusdays on market $350,000 Pending 45 DOM
3. 2026-06-10
   statusdays on market $375,000 Active 43 DOM
4. 2026-06-09
   days on market $375,000 Active Under Contract 42 DOM
5. 2026-06-08
   days on market $375,000 Active Under Contract 41 DOM
6. 2026-06-07
   days on market $375,000 Active Under Contract 40 DOM
7. 2026-06-05
   days on market $375,000 Active Under Contract 37 DOM
8. 2026-06-03
   days on market $375,000 Active Under Contract 36 DOM
9. 2026-06-02
   days on market $375,000 Active Under Contract 35 DOM
10. 2026-06-01
    days on market $375,000 Active Under Contract 34 DOM
11. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active Under Contract 33 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $375,000 Active Under Contract 32 DOM
13. 2026-05-12
    historical Active Under Contract 680-char remark
14. 2026-04-28
    listed $375,000 Active 680-char remark
15. 2025-08-13
    price $364,900
16. 2025-06-17
    listed $375,000 Active
17. 2024-09-30
    historical
18. 2024-09-10
    price $334,900
19. 2024-07-26
    price $339,900
20. 2024-07-09
    price $359,900
21. 2024-06-26
    listed $379,900 Active
22. 2016-11-23
    historical
23. 2016-05-31
    historical
24. 2015-11-28
    listed $249,900
25. 2015-11-23
    listed $249,900
26. 2013-09-30
    historical
27. 2013-03-28
    listed $219,000
28. 2005-11-18
    soldstatus $169,500
29. 2004-10-07
    listed $169,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥99°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 9% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $39,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,605
• − Property taxes: −$5,250
• − Insurance: −$1,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,120
• − Management: −$3,120
• − HOA: −$2,304
• − Depreciation: −$10,182
• Taxable loss: −$6,331
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,520
• After-tax cash flow: $1,000/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This solid move-in ready home with room to grow in a sought-after lake community is in good condition with minor cosmetic updates needed to maximize its resale and rental value.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint interior walls — Neutral paint can be updated to a more modern color scheme
• Both Replace Trex deck — New Trex deck is in good condition, but replacing it could add curb appeal and value
• Both Replace woodstove with modern HVAC system — Modern HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase home value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint interior walls — Neutral paint can be updated to a more modern color scheme ↑
• Both Replace Trex deck — New Trex deck is in good condition, but replacing it could add curb appeal and value ↑
• Both Replace woodstove with modern HVAC system — Modern HVAC system would improve comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase home value and appeal to tech-savvy buyers ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Coxsackie-Athens Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3608490
• Math proficiency: 43% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $55,006
• Composite: 42.8/100
• National rank: #3143
• State rank: #384 of 590 in NY

Livability — Sleepy Hollow Lake

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sleepy Hollow Lake, NY
• Population (ZIP): 4,084

Population outlook (Greene County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 44,963 people
• By 2030: 43,126 · -4.1%
• By 2040: 38,756 · -13.8%
• By 2050: 34,913 · -22.4%
• By 2075: 28,156 · -37.4%
• By 2100: 22,296 · -50.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Two or more races 10% Hispanic / Latino 7% Asian 3% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Iranian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Russian/Polish/Slavic 5% Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Greene

• 2024 margin: R (+17.0) · D 41.5% · R 58.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.1pp toward R · 2008: -9.9pp · 2024: -17.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+17.0 2020: R+15.6 2016: R+27.4 2012: R+11.1 2008: R+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.93%
• Current HPI: 426.3034
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+106.5% since first listed

20 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-12 Pending — HVCRMLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $350,000 HVCRMLS
• 2026-06-09 Relisted — HVCRMLS
• 2026-05-12 Contingent — HVCRMLS
• 2026-04-28 Listed $375,000 HVCRMLS
• 2025-08-13 Price Changed $364,900 HVCRMLS
• 2025-06-17 Listed $375,000 HVCRMLS
• 2024-09-30 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2024-09-10 Price Changed $334,900 Global MLS
• 2024-07-26 Price Changed $339,900 Global MLS
• 2024-07-09 Price Changed $359,900 Global MLS
• 2024-06-26 Listed $379,900 Global MLS
• 2016-11-23 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-05-31 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2015-11-28 Listed $249,900 Global MLS
• 2015-11-23 Listed $249,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-09-30 Listing Removed — Global MLS
• 2013-03-28 Listed $219,000 Global MLS
• 2005-11-18 Sold (MLS) $169,500 Global MLS
• 2004-10-07 Listed $169,500 Global MLS