367 Barricks Mill Rd

Weems, VA 23169

$62,500B

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 82 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,257/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$328
• Tax + insurance: −$60
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $605/mo
• Annual: $7,259/yr
• Cap rate: 17.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.48%
• DSCR: 2.85
• 1% rule: 2.01%
• Cash to close: $17,500

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $605 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $59k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $432 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Middlesex County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #90 of 131 in VA (top 69%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Middlesex County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 7 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $62k implies a 525% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 1.1% in Weems — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.