367 Barricks Mill Rd · Weems, VA 23169

$62,500

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,244 sqft · Manufactured public records · 82 Days on market

Built 1984 0.63 ac lot $50/sqft · 68% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Appreciation +4.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Back on the market due to no fault of the property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

Key facts

• Spacious lot
• Comfortable layout
• 0.63 acre lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• SPACIOUS LOT
• COMFORTABLE LAYOUT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $62k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $605 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $62k).
• Recommended offer: $59k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 1.1% in Weems — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Middlesex County Public School District (rural): math 45% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #90 of 131 in VA (top 69%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 15 active listings in the ZIP; 97 units permitted in Middlesex County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-1.7%/yr); year-one equity from $432 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Middlesex County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-1.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $18k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 82 days — a 6% lower offer ($59k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $12k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $10k; list at $62k implies a 525% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $58,750 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 82 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 17.91%
• Cash-on-cash: 41.48%
• DSCR: 2.85
• GRM: 4.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $192,851
• List price: $62,500
• Delta: -67.59%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-1.68% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 40.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.82×
• Total profit: $31,914
• Equity at exit: $13,067

10-year hold

• IRR: 45.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.60×
• Total profit: $80,560
• Equity at exit: $12,066

Cash invested: $17,500 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23169

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 15
• Price-to-rent: 4.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,257 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$328
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $410/yr
• Insurance: −$26
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$264
• Net cashflow: $605

Break-even live

Break-even rent $491

Max offer price $62,500

Occupancy floor 47%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $15,625
• Closing costs: $1,875
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 38 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $62,500 Active 82 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $62,500 Active 81 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $62,500 Active 80 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,500 Active 79 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $62,500 Active 78 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $62,500 Active 77 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $62,500 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $62,500 Active 73 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $62,500 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $62,500 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $62,500 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $62,500 Active 67 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $62,500 Active 66 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $62,500 Active 65 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $62,500 Active 64 DOM
16. 2026-05-11
    status Active 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

17. 2026-05-11
    status Active 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

18. 2026-05-05
    status Pending 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Back on the market due to no fault of the property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

19. 2026-05-05
    status Pending 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Back on the market due to no fault of the property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

20. 2026-05-04
    price $62,500 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Back on the market due to no fault of the property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

21. 2026-05-04
    price $62,500 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Back on the market due to no fault of the property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

22. 2026-05-04
    status Active 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Back on the market due to no fault of the property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

23. 2026-04-24
    status Pending 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Back on the market due to no fault of the property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

24. 2026-03-12
    status Active 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

25. 2026-03-12
    price $75,000 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

26. 2026-02-28
    historical
27. 2026-01-09
    price $90,000
28. 2026-01-08
    price $90,000 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

29. 2026-01-08
    price $90,000

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

30. 2025-12-13
    price $100,000
31. 2025-10-16
    price $115,000

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

32. 2025-10-16
    price $115,000

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

33. 2025-10-16
    price $115,000 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

34. 2025-10-03
    listed $75,000 Active 279-char remark

    Show marketing remark (279 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Back on the market due to no fault of the property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

35. 2025-09-03
    listed $125,000 Active 227-char remark

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

36. 2025-09-03
    listed $125,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (227 chars)

    Affordable Starter Home or Investment Opportunity! The value is in the lot, 3 bedroom conventional septic and working well. This is a CASH only property. Sold AS-IS, WHERE-IS. Seller is not offering financing and will not rent.

37. 2009-12-16
    soldstatus $10,000
38. 2005-02-11
    soldstatus $31,050

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $410 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $512 · $43/mo
• Expected delta: +$103/yr (+$9/mo · 25.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,081
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,501
• − Property taxes: −$410
• − Insurance: −$312
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,207
• − Management: −$1,207
• − Depreciation: −$1,818
• Taxable income: $6,627
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,590
• After-tax cash flow: $5,668/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middlesex County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102490
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -35.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $51,986
• Composite: 44.58/100
• National rank: #2783
• State rank: #90 of 131 in VA

Livability — Weems

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 975

Population outlook (Middlesex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,829 people
• By 2030: 9,340 · -5.0%
• By 2040: 8,411 · -14.4%
• By 2050: 7,795 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 7,471 · -24.0%
• By 2100: 7,049 · -28.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (83%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 83% Black 8% Asian 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 4% Romanian 4% German 2%
• Foreign-born: 9% · China
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 4% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Chinese 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Middlesex

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.4) · D 35.9% · R 63.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.2pp toward R · 2008: -19.2pp · 2024: -27.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.4 2020: R+25.1 2016: R+26.0 2012: R+20.6 2008: R+19.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -1.68%
• Current HPI: 324.5634
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+101.3% since first listed

23 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Relisted — CBRAR
• 2026-05-11 Relisted — NNAR
• 2026-05-05 Pending — NNAR
• 2026-05-05 Pending — CBRAR
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $62,500 NNAR
• 2026-05-04 Price Changed $62,500 CBRAR
• 2026-05-04 Relisted — CBRAR
• 2026-04-24 Pending — CBRAR
• 2026-03-12 Relisted — NNAR
• 2026-03-12 Price Changed $75,000 NNAR
• 2026-02-28 Listing Removed — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $90,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $90,000 NNAR
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $90,000 CBRAR
• 2025-12-13 Price Changed $100,000 CBRAR
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $115,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $115,000 CBRAR
• 2025-10-16 Price Changed $115,000 NNAR
• 2025-10-03 Listed $75,000 CBRAR
• 2025-09-03 Listed $125,000 NNAR
• 2025-09-03 Listed $125,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2009-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $10,000 Public Records
• 2005-02-11 Sold (Public Records) $31,050 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $410 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.