3 bd · 1.0 ba ·
1,522 sqft ·
Built 1940
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 28 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,273/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,154
Tax + insurance
−$439
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$477
Net cashflow
$203/mo
Annual
$2,438/yr
Cap rate
7.40%
Cash-on-cash
3.96%
DSCR
1.18
1% rule
1.03%
Cash to close
$61,600
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $203 ($2k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $220k).
It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($217k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $217k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 78/100 on livability (#71 in TX, #2,592 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: commute F.
Waxahachie ISD (suburban): math 45% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #253 of 826 in TX (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Dunaway El (math 44% / reading 45%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 454 students, 64% FRL) — zoned schools average 64% FRL vs 48% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 854 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 8d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,016 units permitted in Ellis County in 2024 (20 in 5+ unit buildings).
Ellis County population projected at +36% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Current owner paid $35k; list at $220k implies a 529% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 3.3% in Waxahachie — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($86k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-V6SWD4AS39CKA6
· Data 3 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29