435 Rustic Ln S

Sumpter, MI 48111

$7,500D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · Built 1985 · Manufactured · Active · 83 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,589/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$39
• Tax + insurance: −$12
• HOA: −$624
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $579/mo
• Annual: $6,951/yr
• Cap rate: 98.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 331.00%
• DSCR: 15.73
• 1% rule: 21.18%
• Cash to close: $2,100

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $8k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $8k).
• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($7k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $7k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $52 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $225 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Lincoln Consolidated School District (rural): math 17% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #393 of 540 in MI (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Middle School (math 18% / reading 34%, grade F, #383 of 493 statewide, top 78%, 734 students, 56% FRL); Lincoln Senior High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #441 of 713 statewide, top 64%, 927 students, 45% FRL).
• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.