435 Rustic Ln S · Belleville, MI 48111

$7,500

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured · 83 Days on market

Built 1985 980 sqft lot $8/sqft · 97% below area $624/mo HOA · 39% of rent ↓ 20% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home with spacious open kitchen, dining and living area. Recent updates include new porch steps, a new porch light, ceiling fans, and a new bath surround in the full bathroom. Furnace and water heater approximately 8–10 years old. Metal Roof. Priced to sell, this property is being sold as-is, with everything working properly, making it a great opportunity to make it your own or add to your investment portfolio! This home is located in Rawsonville Woods Manufactured Home Community on a leased lot.

Key facts

• Metal roof
• New porch steps
• Ceiling fans

Tags

• OPEN KITCHEN
• NEW PORCH STEPS
• NEW PORCH LIGHT
• CEILING FANS
• NEW BATH SURROUND
• METAL ROOF

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $7,500 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$271,785) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath manufactured listed at $8k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $579 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $8k).
• Recommended offer: $7k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 99.0% vs local median 3.0% in Belleville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#164 in MI, #4,360 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
• Lincoln Consolidated School District (rural): math 17% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #393 of 540 in MI (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Lincoln Middle School (math 18% / reading 34%, grade F, #383 of 493 statewide, top 78%, 734 students, 56% FRL); Lincoln Senior High School (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #441 of 713 statewide, top 64%, 927 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.6%/yr); 223 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 2,639 units permitted in Wayne County in 2024 (1,216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $52 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $225 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wayne County population projected at -17% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.6% rent growth), your $2k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 83 days — a 6% lower offer ($7k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $5k (40%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 39% of rent.

Recommended offer $7,050 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 83 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 21.18% ✓
• Cap rate: 98.97%
• Cash-on-cash: 331.00%
• DSCR: 15.73
• GRM: 0.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $271,785
• List price: $7,500
• Delta: -97.24%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.64% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 18.67×
• Total profit: $37,115
• Equity at exit: $1,118

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 41.84×
• Total profit: $85,760
• Equity at exit: $648

Cash invested: $2,100 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48111

• Rents YoY: 3.6%
• Active inventory: 223
• Price-to-rent: 0.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,589 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$39
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$9 /mo · $112/yr
• Insurance: −$3
• HOA: −$624
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$334
• Net cashflow: $579

Break-even live

Break-even rent $855

Max offer price $7,500

Occupancy floor 59%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $584	-5% $582	+0% $579	+5% $577	+10% $574
Rent	-10% $454	-5% $517	+0% $579	+5% $642	+10% $705
Rate	-1.0pp $583	-0.5pp $581	base $579	+0.5pp $577	+1.0pp $575

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,875
• Closing costs: $225
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10825 Rawsonville Rd Belleville, MI	2.0–4.0	2.0	1544	$1,374	$0.89	0d	1	0.38mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $624 · $7,488/yr
• Likely covers: water

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $7,500 Active 83 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $7,500 Active 80 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $7,500 Active 79 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $7,500 Active 78 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $7,500 Active 77 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   statusdays on market $7,500 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-04-22
   price $10,000 540-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home with spacious open kitchen, dining and living area. Recent updates include new porch steps, a new porch light, ceiling fans, and a new bath surround in the full bathroom. Furnace and water heater approximately 8–10 years old. Metal Roof. Priced to sell, this property is being sold as-is, with everything working properly, making it a great opportunity to make it your own or add to your investment portfolio! This home is located in Rawsonville Woods Manufactured Home Community on a leased lot.

8. 2026-04-21
   price $10,000 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (527 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home with spacious open kitchen, dining and living area. Recent updates include new porch steps, a new porch light, ceiling fans, and a new bath surround in the full bathroom. Furnace and water heater approximately 8–10 years old. Metal Roof. Priced to sell, this property is being sold as-is, with everything working properly, making it a great opportunity to make it your own or add to your investment portfolio! This home is located in Rawsonville Woods Manufactured Home Community on a leased lot.

9. 2026-03-17
   listed $12,500 Active 527-char remark

   Show marketing remark (540 chars)

   3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home with spacious open kitchen, dining and living area. Recent updates include new porch steps, a new porch light, ceiling fans, and a new bath surround in the full bathroom. Furnace and water heater approximately 8–10 years old. Metal Roof. Priced to sell, this property is being sold as-is, with everything working properly, making it a great opportunity to make it your own or add to your investment portfolio! This home is located in Rawsonville Woods Manufactured Home Community on a leased lot.

10. 2026-03-17
    listed $12,500 Active 540-char remark

    Show marketing remark (540 chars)

    3-bedroom, 1.5-bath home with spacious open kitchen, dining and living area. Recent updates include new porch steps, a new porch light, ceiling fans, and a new bath surround in the full bathroom. Furnace and water heater approximately 8–10 years old. Metal Roof. Priced to sell, this property is being sold as-is, with everything working properly, making it a great opportunity to make it your own or add to your investment portfolio! This home is located in Rawsonville Woods Manufactured Home Community on a leased lot.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,065
• − Mortgage interest: −$420
• − Property taxes: −$112
• − Insurance: −$38
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,525
• − Management: −$1,525
• − HOA: −$7,488
• − Depreciation: −$218
• Taxable income: $7,738
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,857
• After-tax cash flow: $5,094/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lincoln Consolidated School District
• NCES district ID: 2621570
• Math proficiency: 17% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $68,001
• Composite: 23.72/100
• National rank: #7827
• State rank: #393 of 540 in MI

Livability — Belleville

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #164
• US rank: #4360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Wayne County · 1,562,939 people
• City population: 44,709
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 44,709
• Household income: $76,595
• Rent vs Own: 31.6% rent · 68.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1200.0

Population outlook (Wayne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,675,273 people
• By 2030: 1,620,300 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 1,502,341 · -10.3%
• By 2050: 1,384,039 · -17.4%
• By 2075: 1,124,592 · -32.9%
• By 2100: 881,193 · -47.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Black 22% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 4% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 8% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 1% Other Indo-European 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Wayne

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+29.0) · D 62.7% · R 33.7% · Other 3.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.5pp toward R · 2008: 49.5pp · 2024: 29.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+29.0 2020: D+38.1 2016: D+37.3 2012: D+46.9 2008: D+49.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -238.11%
• Current HPI: 236.4458
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.64%
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

-20.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-22 Price Changed $10,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-21 Price Changed $10,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-17 Listed $12,500 REALCOMP
• 2026-03-17 Listed $12,500 MiRealSource-MiMLS