2 bd · 1.5 ba ·
1,058 sqft ·
Built 1974
· Condo
· Active
· 65 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,626/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$983
Tax + insurance
−$145
HOA
−$200
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$342
Net cashflow
$-43/mo
Annual
$-520/yr
Cap rate
6.02%
Cash-on-cash
-0.99%
DSCR
0.96
1% rule
0.87%
Cash to close
$52,500
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/1.5-bath condo listed at $188k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-43 ($-520/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $180k (4.1% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (13.3% below list).
It's been on market 65 days — a 6% lower offer ($176k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $163k (13.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 71/100 on livability (#17 in NM) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, cost of living A; Watch: amenities D, commute F.
Rio Rancho Public Schools (suburban): math 48% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #4 of 29 in NM (top 14%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Martin King Jr Elementary (628 students, 16% FRL); Lincoln Middle (823 students, 21% FRL); Rio Rancho High (math 52% / reading 77%, grade B-, #22 of 110 statewide, top 22%, 2,573 students, 22% FRL) — zoned schools average 20% FRL vs 36% district-wide (16 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.1%/yr); 837 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,278 units permitted in Sandoval County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
Sandoval County population projected at +15% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 3.6% in Rio Rancho — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 65 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 13% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Built in 1974 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
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