1849 S Maple Ave

Lakewood, NY 14710

$39,500A-

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · Built 1910 · SingleFamily · Active · 301 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,204/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax + insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $675/mo
• Annual: $8,106/yr
• Cap rate: 26.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.29%
• DSCR: 4.26
• 1% rule: 3.05%
• Cash to close: $11,060

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $675 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($273 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#398 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Panama Central School District (rural): math 72% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #202 of 755 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Panama K-6 School (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #675 of 2,108 statewide, top 35%, 242 students, 43% FRL); Panama High School (math 62% / reading 67%, grade B-, #776 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 197 students, 40% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $40k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 26.8% vs local median 3.0% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.