1849 S Maple Ave · Lakewood, NY 14710

$39,500

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,378 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 301 Days on market

Built 1910 1.19 ac lot $29/sqft · 71% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Rehab house in Ashville, Panama School district. House sits on a 1.19 acre lot. All in as is condition. No utilities on, bring flashlight.

Key facts

• 1.19 acre lot
• 1.19 acre lot
• Built 1910

Tags

• 1.19 ACRE LOT
• PANAMA SCHOOL DISTRICT

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $675 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $35k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 26.8% vs local median 3.0% in Lakewood — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#398 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, employment D+, amenities F.
• Panama Central School District (rural): math 72% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #202 of 755 in NY (top 27%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 37 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Chautauqua County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $4k of equity ($273 loan paydown + $4k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chautauqua County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 301 days — a 12% lower offer ($35k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $15k; list at $40k implies a 163% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $34,760 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 301 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 26.81%
• Cash-on-cash: 73.29%
• DSCR: 4.26
• GRM: 2.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $135,834
• List price: $39,500
• Delta: -70.92%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 4 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4742 Gleason Rd	0.39mi	3/1.0 (-1)	1,466 (+6%)	19mo	$139,050	$95	50
2047 S Maple Ave	0.48mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,520 (+10%)	11mo	$286,200	$188	42
1628 Wellman Rd	0.59mi	3/1.5 (-1)	1,572 (+14%)	11mo	$93,000	$59	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 83.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.84×
• Total profit: $64,553
• Equity at exit: $35,585

10-year hold

• IRR: 78.3%
• Equity multiple: 15.13×
• Total profit: $156,306
• Equity at exit: $76,740

Cash invested: $11,060 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14710

• Home prices YoY: 14.9%
• Active inventory: 37
• Price-to-rent: 2.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,204 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$207
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $622/yr
• Insurance: −$16
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$253
• Net cashflow: $675

Break-even live

Break-even rent $349

Max offer price $39,500

Occupancy floor 39%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $698	-5% $687	+0% $675	+5% $664	+10% $653
Rent	-10% $580	-5% $628	+0% $675	+5% $723	+10% $771
Rate	-1.0pp $695	-0.5pp $686	base $675	+0.5pp $665	+1.0pp $655

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,875
• Closing costs: $1,185
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,500 Active 301 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $39,500 Active 300 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,500 Active 298 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,500 Active 297 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,500 Active 296 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,500 Active 295 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $39,500 Active 293 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $39,500 Active 292 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $39,500 Active 289 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $39,500 Active 288 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $39,500 Active 287 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $39,500 Active 285 DOM
13. 2026-06-04
    days on market $39,500 Active 283 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $39,500 Active 282 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $39,500 Active 281 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $39,500 Active 280 DOM
17. 2026-02-03
    status Active 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Rehab house in Ashville, Panama School district. House sits on a 1.19 acre lot. All in as is condition. No utilities on, bring flashlight.

18. 2026-02-03
    price $39,500 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Rehab house in Ashville, Panama School district. House sits on a 1.19 acre lot. All in as is condition. No utilities on, bring flashlight.

19. 2026-01-30
    historical 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Rehab house in Ashville, Panama School district. House sits on a 1.19 acre lot. All in as is condition. No utilities on, bring flashlight.

20. 2025-08-20
    listed $49,500 Active 138-char remark

    Show marketing remark (138 chars)

    Rehab house in Ashville, Panama School district. House sits on a 1.19 acre lot. All in as is condition. No utilities on, bring flashlight.

21. 2004-03-10
    soldstatus $15,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $622 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $645 · $54/mo
• Expected delta: +$23/yr (+$2/mo · 3.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,443
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,213
• − Property taxes: −$622
• − Insurance: −$198
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,155
• − Management: −$1,155
• − Depreciation: −$1,149
• Taxable income: $7,952
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,908
• After-tax cash flow: $6,197/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Panama Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3622410
• Math proficiency: 72% ▲ 4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $46,976
• Composite: 58.33/100
• National rank: #2085
• State rank: #202 of 755 in NY

Livability — Lakewood

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #398
• US rank: #6904

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,951

Population outlook (Chautauqua County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 123,454 people
• By 2030: 118,509 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 107,311 · -13.1%
• By 2050: 96,703 · -21.7%
• By 2075: 76,757 · -37.8%
• By 2100: 60,984 · -50.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (97%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 97% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chautauqua

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.0) · D 39.0% · R 61.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -22.9pp toward R · 2008: 0.9pp · 2024: -22.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.0 2020: R+19.8 2016: R+24.6 2012: R+8.2 2008: D+0.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 44.70%
• Current HPI: 344.7366
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+163.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Relisted — UNYREIS
• 2026-02-03 Price Changed $39,500 UNYREIS
• 2026-01-30 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2025-08-20 Listed $49,500 UNYREIS
• 2004-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $15,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $622 · +37.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.