816 Oak St

Lakehurst, NJ 08733

$274,900C-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · Built 1970 · MultiFamily · Active · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,000/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax + insurance: −$478
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $450/mo
• Annual: $5,402/yr
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.02%
• DSCR: 1.31
• 1% rule: 1.09%
• Cash to close: $76,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $275k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $450 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#254 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Lakehurst School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #589 of 612 in NJ (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $275k implies a 882% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.