816 Oak St · Lakehurst, NJ 08733

$274,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,170 sqft · MultiFamily public records · 5 Days on market

Built 1970 4,792 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +22.2/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +7.1/10.0
• 1% rule +5.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.2/10.0

Multi-family units

County records classify this as Multi-Family (2-4 Unit). Listing-text estimate: 1 unit. estimate disagrees with records

Listing remarks MLS

This 3 bedroom, 1.5 bath home located in Lakehurst near the military base has so much potential. A great opportunity to make this home your own! Large eat in kitchen, family room and 1/2 bath on first floor. Second floor has 3 bedrooms and a full bath. Full basement with lots of storage. Plenty of space in the fenced in back yard. This home has newer AC, Hot water heater and furnace. Schedule your showing today .

Key facts

• Newer ac
• Eat in kitchen
• Hot water heater

Tags

• EAT IN KITCHEN
• FENCED IN BACK YARD
• FULL BASEMENT
• NEWER AC
• HOT WATER HEATER
• FURNACE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Public sewer
• Home design: Fee simple ownership

Interior

• Kitchen: Stove included; Refrigerator included
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom (1.5 total bathrooms)
• Heating & cooling: Heating present; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Light fixtures included; Full basement

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $450 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $275k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#254 in NJ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D, cost of living D, amenities F.
• Lakehurst School District (suburban): math 15% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #589 of 612 in NJ (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 4,434 units permitted in Ocean County in 2024 (868 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Ocean County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $28k; list at $275k implies a 882% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 62% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $274,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.09% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.26%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.02%
• DSCR: 1.31
• GRM: 7.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.79×
• Total profit: $-15,817
• Equity at exit: $40,988

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.30×
• Total profit: $23,379
• Equity at exit: $23,768

Cash invested: $76,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 21 Tenant-Leaning
• State New Jersey: 21 Tenant-Leaning · D+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Anti-eviction Act requires just-cause statewide; rent control in 100+ municipalities; one of the most tenant-friendly states.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 08733

• Home prices YoY: -2.5%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 7.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,000 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$364 /mo · $4,364/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$630
• Net cashflow: $450

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,430

Max offer price $274,900

Occupancy floor 80%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $606	-5% $528	+0% $450	+5% $372	+10% $295
Rent	-10% $213	-5% $332	+0% $450	+5% $569	+10% $687
Rate	-1.0pp $589	-0.5pp $520	base $450	+0.5pp $379	+1.0pp $306

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,725
• Closing costs: $8,247
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
812 Oak St Lakehurst, NJ	3.0	1.5	1170	$3,000	$2.56	0d	1	0.02mi

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $274,900 Active 5 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $274,900 Active 3 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $274,900 Active 2 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   listing id $274,900 Active 1 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   remarks 416-char remark
6. 2026-06-16
   listed $274,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NJ · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,364 · $364/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,605 · $467/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,240/yr (+$103/mo · 28.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥103°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 62% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 4 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $36,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,399
• − Property taxes: −$4,364
• − Insurance: −$1,374
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,880
• − Management: −$2,880
• − Depreciation: −$7,997
• Taxable income: $1,105
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$265
• After-tax cash flow: $5,137/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lakehurst School District
• NCES district ID: 3408160
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $60,420
• Composite: 22.13/100
• National rank: #13525
• State rank: #589 of 612 in NJ

Livability — Lakehurst

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #254
• US rank: #7255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute C+ Cost of living D Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakehurst, NJ
• Population (ZIP): 2,864

Population outlook (Ocean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 586,991 people
• By 2030: 581,403 · -1.0%
• By 2040: 564,913 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 538,149 · -8.3%
• By 2075: 468,845 · -20.1%
• By 2100: 350,297 · -40.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (65%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 65% Hispanic / Latino 16% Two or more races 14% Black 9% Asian 5% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 8%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 9% Slovak 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Tagalog/Filipino 6% Spanish 6% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Ocean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+36.0) · D 31.4% · R 67.4% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.6pp toward R · 2008: -18.4pp · 2024: -36.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+36.0 2020: R+28.7 2016: R+34.0 2012: R+17.7 2008: R+18.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -9.53%
• Current HPI: 363.7763
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.05%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NJ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Consumer Goods	3	$31B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$153B
▸Technology	2	$21B
▸Insurance	2	$20B
▸Healthcare	2	$19B
▸Financial Services	1	$70B

Price history

+882.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listed $274,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-15 Listed $274,900 MOMLS
• 1976-07-22 Sold (Public Records) $27,990 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,364 · +4.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.