5 Bayberry Ln

Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11960

$2,599,000F

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,492 sqft · Built 1994 · SingleFamily · Active · 784 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $13,572/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,629
• Tax + insurance: −$3,169
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,850
• Net cashflow: $-6,076/mo
• Annual: $-72,916/yr
• Cap rate: 3.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.32%
• DSCR: 0.59
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $727,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.60M.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-73k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.53M (41.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.36M (47.8% below list).
• It's been on market 784 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.29M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $1.36M (47.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $221k of equity ($18k loan paydown + $203k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 12 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.80M; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$354k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 6.4% in Remsenburg-Speonk — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 784 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.