5 Bayberry Ln · Remsenburg-Speonk, NY 11960

$2,599,000

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,492 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 784 Days on market

Built 1994 0.92 ac lot $1043/sqft · 28% above area Est $2124k · 22% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +8.9/10.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +4.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0

Listing remarks MLS

Open Bayfront. Last of Its Kind!!! Bayview's & Sunset views Don't Get Any Better. Traditional Saltbox Home with 4 Bedrooms & 3 Baths. Located On A Quiet Cul De Sac. There is a Large Open Living Room With Fireplace, Eat-In Kitchen and a Bayside Heated Gunite Pool nestled in a Large Sprawling Lawn. This Property Is Ideal For An Expansive Renovation or Build your Bayfront Dream Home.

Key facts

• Bayfront views
• Quiet cul de sac
• Large sprawling lawn

Tags

• BAYFRONT VIEWS
• QUIET CUL DE SAC
• LARGE SPRAWLING LAWN

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $2.60M.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-6k ($-73k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $1.53M (41.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $1.36M (47.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $1.36M (47.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 6.4% in Remsenburg-Speonk — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade F — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #389 of 755 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 41 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $221k of equity ($18k loan paydown + $203k appreciation (7.8% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$354k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 784 days — a 12% lower offer ($2.29M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 12 sale attempts since 14y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.80M; 44% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $1,357,185 (47.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 784 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.68%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.32%
• DSCR: 0.59
• GRM: 16.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $2,124,314
• List price: $2,599,000
• Delta: 22.35%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
15 E Shore Dr	0.64mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,574 (+3%)	7mo	$1,075,000	$418	52
61 Halsey Rd	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,160 (-13%)	16mo	$1,149,000	$532	40
26 Basket Neck Ln	0.73mi	4/4.0 (+1)	2,200 (-12%)	7mo	$2,350,000	$1,068	32

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

7.81% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 12.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.90×
• Total profit: $651,408
• Equity at exit: $1,940,787

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.99×
• Total profit: $2,175,653
• Equity at exit: $3,820,697

Cash invested: $727,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11960

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 41
• Price-to-rent: 16.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $13,572 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$13,629
• Tax from tax record: −$1,659 /mo · $19,910/yr
• Insurance: −$1,083
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$2,850
• Net cashflow: $-6,076

Break-even live

Break-even rent $21,263

Max offer price $1,525,592

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-4,605	-5% $-5,341	+0% $-6,076	+5% $-6,812	+10% $-7,548
Rent	-10% $-7,148	-5% $-6,612	+0% $-6,076	+5% $-5,540	+10% $-5,004
Rate	-1.0pp $-4,767	-0.5pp $-5,415	base $-6,076	+0.5pp $-6,750	+1.0pp $-7,435

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $649,750
• Closing costs: $77,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
35 Halsey Rd Remsenburg, NY	3.0	2.0	2345	$10,000	$4.26	0d	1	0.42mi
620 Dune Rd Westhampton Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	2300	$25,000	$10.87	0d	1	1.33mi

Listing history 46 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $2,599,000 Active 784 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $2,599,000 Active 781 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $2,599,000 Active 780 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $2,599,000 Active 779 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $2,599,000 Active 778 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,599,000 Active 776 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $2,599,000 Active 775 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $2,599,000 Active 772 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $2,599,000 Active 771 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $2,599,000 Active 770 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $2,599,000 Active 767 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $2,599,000 Active 766 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $2,599,000 Active 765 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $2,599,000 Active 764 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $2,599,000 Active 763 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    price $2,599,000 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Open Bayfront. Last of Its Kind!!! Bayview's & Sunset views Don't Get Any Better. Traditional Saltbox Home with 4 Bedrooms & 3 Baths. Located On A Quiet Cul De Sac. There is a Large Open Living Room With Fireplace, Eat-In Kitchen and a Bayside Heated Gunite Pool nestled in a Large Sprawling Lawn. This Property Is Ideal For An Expansive Renovation or Build your Bayfront Dream Home.

17. 2026-04-10
    price $2,599,000 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Open Bayfront. Last of Its Kind!!! Bayview's & Sunset views Don't Get Any Better. Traditional Saltbox Home with 4 Bedrooms & 3 Baths. Located On A Quiet Cul De Sac. There is a Large Open Living Room With Fireplace, Eat-In Kitchen and a Bayside Heated Gunite Pool nestled in a Large Sprawling Lawn. This Property Is Ideal For An Expansive Renovation or Build your Bayfront Dream Home.

18. 2025-10-06
    price $2,799,000 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Open Bayfront. Last of Its Kind!!! Bayview's & Sunset views Don't Get Any Better. Traditional Saltbox Home with 4 Bedrooms & 3 Baths. Located On A Quiet Cul De Sac. There is a Large Open Living Room With Fireplace, Eat-In Kitchen and a Bayside Heated Gunite Pool nestled in a Large Sprawling Lawn. This Property Is Ideal For An Expansive Renovation or Build your Bayfront Dream Home.

19. 2025-10-06
    price $2,799,000 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Open Bayfront. Last of Its Kind!!! Bayview's & Sunset views Don't Get Any Better. Traditional Saltbox Home with 4 Bedrooms & 3 Baths. Located On A Quiet Cul De Sac. There is a Large Open Living Room With Fireplace, Eat-In Kitchen and a Bayside Heated Gunite Pool nestled in a Large Sprawling Lawn. This Property Is Ideal For An Expansive Renovation or Build your Bayfront Dream Home.

20. 2025-05-20
    status Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Open Bayfront. Last of Its Kind!!! Bayview's & Sunset views Don't Get Any Better. Traditional Saltbox Home with 4 Bedrooms & 3 Baths. Located On A Quiet Cul De Sac. There is a Large Open Living Room With Fireplace, Eat-In Kitchen and a Bayside Heated Gunite Pool nestled in a Large Sprawling Lawn. This Property Is Ideal For An Expansive Renovation or Build your Bayfront Dream Home.

21. 2025-05-20
    status Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Open Bayfront. Last of Its Kind!!! Bayview's & Sunset views Don't Get Any Better. Traditional Saltbox Home with 4 Bedrooms & 3 Baths. Located On A Quiet Cul De Sac. There is a Large Open Living Room With Fireplace, Eat-In Kitchen and a Bayside Heated Gunite Pool nestled in a Large Sprawling Lawn. This Property Is Ideal For An Expansive Renovation or Build your Bayfront Dream Home.

22. 2025-05-01
    historical 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Open Bayfront. Last of Its Kind!!! Bayview's & Sunset views Don't Get Any Better. Traditional Saltbox Home with 4 Bedrooms & 3 Baths. Located On A Quiet Cul De Sac. There is a Large Open Living Room With Fireplace, Eat-In Kitchen and a Bayside Heated Gunite Pool nestled in a Large Sprawling Lawn. This Property Is Ideal For An Expansive Renovation or Build your Bayfront Dream Home.

23. 2025-05-01
    historical 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Open Bayfront. Last of Its Kind!!! Bayview's & Sunset views Don't Get Any Better. Traditional Saltbox Home with 4 Bedrooms & 3 Baths. Located On A Quiet Cul De Sac. There is a Large Open Living Room With Fireplace, Eat-In Kitchen and a Bayside Heated Gunite Pool nestled in a Large Sprawling Lawn. This Property Is Ideal For An Expansive Renovation or Build your Bayfront Dream Home.

24. 2024-11-04
    status Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Open Bayfront. Last of Its Kind!!! Bayview's & Sunset views Don't Get Any Better. Traditional Saltbox Home with 4 Bedrooms & 3 Baths. Located On A Quiet Cul De Sac. There is a Large Open Living Room With Fireplace, Eat-In Kitchen and a Bayside Heated Gunite Pool nestled in a Large Sprawling Lawn. This Property Is Ideal For An Expansive Renovation or Build your Bayfront Dream Home.

25. 2024-11-04
    status Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Open Bayfront. Last of Its Kind!!! Bayview's & Sunset views Don't Get Any Better. Traditional Saltbox Home with 4 Bedrooms & 3 Baths. Located On A Quiet Cul De Sac. There is a Large Open Living Room With Fireplace, Eat-In Kitchen and a Bayside Heated Gunite Pool nestled in a Large Sprawling Lawn. This Property Is Ideal For An Expansive Renovation or Build your Bayfront Dream Home.

26. 2024-10-31
    historical 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Open Bayfront. Last of Its Kind!!! Bayview's & Sunset views Don't Get Any Better. Traditional Saltbox Home with 4 Bedrooms & 3 Baths. Located On A Quiet Cul De Sac. There is a Large Open Living Room With Fireplace, Eat-In Kitchen and a Bayside Heated Gunite Pool nestled in a Large Sprawling Lawn. This Property Is Ideal For An Expansive Renovation or Build your Bayfront Dream Home.

27. 2024-10-31
    historical 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Open Bayfront. Last of Its Kind!!! Bayview's & Sunset views Don't Get Any Better. Traditional Saltbox Home with 4 Bedrooms & 3 Baths. Located On A Quiet Cul De Sac. There is a Large Open Living Room With Fireplace, Eat-In Kitchen and a Bayside Heated Gunite Pool nestled in a Large Sprawling Lawn. This Property Is Ideal For An Expansive Renovation or Build your Bayfront Dream Home.

28. 2024-04-05
    listed $2,600,000 Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Open Bayfront. Last of Its Kind!!! Bayview's & Sunset views Don't Get Any Better. Traditional Saltbox Home with 4 Bedrooms & 3 Baths. Located On A Quiet Cul De Sac. There is a Large Open Living Room With Fireplace, Eat-In Kitchen and a Bayside Heated Gunite Pool nestled in a Large Sprawling Lawn. This Property Is Ideal For An Expansive Renovation or Build your Bayfront Dream Home.

29. 2024-04-05
    listed $2,600,000 Active 391-char remark

    Show marketing remark (391 chars)

    Open Bayfront. Last of Its Kind!!! Bayview's & Sunset views Don't Get Any Better. Traditional Saltbox Home with 4 Bedrooms & 3 Baths. Located On A Quiet Cul De Sac. There is a Large Open Living Room With Fireplace, Eat-In Kitchen and a Bayside Heated Gunite Pool nestled in a Large Sprawling Lawn. This Property Is Ideal For An Expansive Renovation or Build your Bayfront Dream Home.

30. 2023-12-30
    historical
31. 2023-12-30
    historical
32. 2023-07-04
    status Active
33. 2023-07-04
    status Active
34. 2023-06-30
    historical
35. 2023-06-30
    historical
36. 2020-08-07
    price $2,600,000
37. 2020-08-07
    price $2,600,000
38. 2019-06-04
    listed $2,399,000 New
39. 2017-05-09
    status Back On Market
40. 2017-05-08
    historical
41. 2014-12-01
    status Listing Extended
42. 2014-12-01
    historical
43. 2013-08-02
    price $2,399,000 Price Change
44. 2012-07-26
    price $2,600,000 Price Change
45. 2012-04-21
    listed $2,800,000 New
46. 2011-02-17
    soldstatus $1,800,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $19,910 · $1,659/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $31,917 · $2,660/mo
• Expected delta: +$12,006/yr (+$1,001/mo · 60.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone AE · 96% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥90°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $162,862
• − Mortgage interest: −$145,584
• − Property taxes: −$19,910
• − Insurance: −$18,114
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$13,029
• − Management: −$13,029
• − Depreciation: −$75,607
• Taxable loss: −$122,411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$29,379
• After-tax cash flow: $-43,537/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Remsenburg-Speonk Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3624420
• Math proficiency: 60% ▲ 10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $79,972
• Composite: 47.7/100
• National rank: #4915
• State rank: #389 of 755 in NY

Livability — Remsenburg-Speonk

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Remsenburg-Speonk, NY
• City population: 1,346
• Population (ZIP): 1,037

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (100%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 100%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 9% Romanian 8% Scotch-Irish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 7.81%
• Current HPI: 386.454
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+44.4% since first listed

31 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $2,599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $2,599,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $2,799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-06 Price Changed $2,799,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-20 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-20 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-11-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-31 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-05 Listed $2,600,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-05 Listed $2,600,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-07-04 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-06-30 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-07 Price Changed $2,600,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-08-07 Price Changed $2,600,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-04 Listed $2,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-09 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2017-05-08 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-01 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2014-12-01 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2013-08-02 Price Changed $2,399,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-07-26 Price Changed $2,600,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2012-04-21 Listed $2,800,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $1,800,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.3%/yr

Latest (2022): $19,910 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.