14A Larkin Ave

Crozet, VA 22932

$479,900D-

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,854 sqft · Built 2026 · Townhouse · Active · 52 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $3,148/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax + insurance: −$800
• HOA: −$105
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$661
• Net cashflow: $-934/mo
• Annual: $-11,213/yr
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.34%
• DSCR: 0.63
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $134,372

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $480k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-934 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (28.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (34.4% below list).
• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($466k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $315k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#48 in VA, #1,158 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Brownsville Elementary (math 73% / reading 86%, grade A, #141 of 1,108 statewide, top 14%, 591 students, 17% FRL); Joseph T. Henley Middle (math 82% / reading 89%, grade A+, #10 of 342 statewide, top 3%, 808 students, 13% FRL); Western Albemarle High (math 72% / reading 92%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 1,158 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.7% in Crozet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.