14A Larkin Ave · Crozet, VA 22932

$479,900

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,854 sqft · Townhouse · 52 Days on market

Built 2026 2,178 sqft lot $259/sqft · 16% below area Est $568k · 16% under $105/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.5/15.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• Cash flow +5.9/30.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Proposed. The Avon, a brand new townhome design in Old Trail. This contemporary home has a thoughtfully designed main level w/ oversized picture windows and a well-appointed L-shape kitchen w/ pantry that is convenient to the deck for outdoor dining/cooking. Personalize the home to your needs: 3-4 beds, 2.5-3.5 baths, study, coffee bar, vaulted ceiling, and more. Premium exterior finishes: James Hardie & metal siding, metal roofing, dark bronze windows, & composite decking. Old Trail is set against the Blue Ridge mountains steps from dining, coffee shop, ACAC Gym, golf course, schools and more! Every home is Pearl Certified and HERS scored by a third party to ensure quality, comf

Key facts

• Metal roofing
• Outdoor dining
• Main level

Tags

• MAIN LEVEL
• L-SHAPE KITCHEN
• OUTDOOR DINING
• PREMIUM EXTERIOR FINISHES
• JAMES HARDIE SIDING
• METAL ROOFING

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 14A Larkin Ave, Crozet, VA
• HOA & community: Association fee of $315 quarterly; Association covers management, common area maintenance, grounds maintenance, playground, snow removal and trash; Association amenities include pool, playground, golf course access, sports fields and trails

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 2-car garage; Asphalt driveway; Garage door opener; Garage faces rear
• Security: Deadbolt(s); Smoke detector(s); Carbon monoxide detector(s); Radon mitigation system
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Underground electric; Cable available; Natural gas available; High speed internet available
• Home design: Attached property; Two levels; 2+ common walls; New construction
• Construction: Built with brick, stucco and cement/fiber cement siding; stick built; Blown-in insulation and low-VOC insulation; Poured foundation and slab
• Exterior features: Townhouse; Deck; Front porch; Porch; Landscaped lot; Level, open lot; Community pool (association)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Microwave; Disposal; ENERGY STAR qualified appliances; Breakfast bar / eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on third level; Additional bedroom on third level
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling; Has heating and has cooling
• Interior features: Double vanity; Walk-in closet(s); Breakfast bar; Eat-in kitchen; Loft; Programmable thermostat; Recessed lighting; Low emissivity windows; Storm windows; Tilt-in windows; Vinyl windows; Filtration and low-VOC paint/materials for improved indoor air quality; HERS Index Score and Pearl Certification (green building verification)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $480k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-934 ($-11k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $345k (28.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $315k (34.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $315k (34.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.0% vs local median 2.7% in Crozet — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#48 in VA, #1,158 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F, cost of living F.
• Albemarle County Public School District (rural): math 66% / reading 77% proficiency, ranked #14 of 131 in VA (top 11%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical.
• Zoned schools: Brownsville Elementary (math 73% / reading 86%, grade A, #141 of 1,108 statewide, top 14%, 591 students, 17% FRL); Joseph T. Henley Middle (math 82% / reading 89%, grade A+, #10 of 342 statewide, top 3%, 808 students, 13% FRL); Western Albemarle High (math 72% / reading 92%, grade A, #40 of 319 statewide, top 15%, 1,158 students, 13% FRL).
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 810 units permitted in Albemarle County in 2024 (188 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($116k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Albemarle County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 52 days — a 3% lower offer ($466k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $314,822 (34.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 52 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 34% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.96%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.34%
• DSCR: 0.63
• GRM: 12.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $567,990
• List price: $479,900
• Delta: -15.51%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2019 Larkin Ave	0.03mi	3/3.0	1,854 (0%)	5mo	$545,899	$294	92
2017 Larkin Ave	0.03mi	3/3.0	1,854 (0%)	7mo	$494,124	$267	90
2011 Larkin Ave	0.03mi	3/3.0	1,854 (0%)	8mo	$530,952	$286	90
5438 Golf Dr	0.06mi	3/3.5	1,883 (+2%)	2mo	$507,590	$270	89
5442 Golf Dr	0.03mi	3/3.0	1,928 (+4%)	2mo	$580,430	$301	88
5440 Golf Dr	0.06mi	3/3.0	1,926 (+4%)	2mo	$566,144	$294	87
2030 Larkin Ln	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,084 (+12%)	0mo	$849,900	$408	78
1082 Old Trail Dr	0.19mi	3/3.5	1,925 (+4%)	7mo	$460,000	$239	75
2022 Larkin Ave	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,084 (+12%)	4mo	$881,348	$423	75
1042 Old Trail Dr	0.25mi	4/3.5 (+1)	1,856 (+0%)	7mo	$408,910	$220	73
2042 Larkin Ave	0.03mi	3/2.5	2,084 (+12%)	8mo	$830,464	$398	72
532 Summerford Ln	0.59mi	3/2.5	1,760 (-5%)	0mo	$395,000	$224	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.02×
• Total profit: $-137,164
• Equity at exit: $71,555

10-year hold

• IRR: -33.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.46×
• Total profit: $-195,616
• Equity at exit: $41,493

Cash invested: $134,372 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22932

• Home prices YoY: -25.3%
• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 12.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,148 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,517
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$600 /mo · $7,198/yr
• Insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$105
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$661
• Net cashflow: $-934

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,331

Max offer price $344,693

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,975
• Closing costs: $14,397
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1241 Old Trail Dr Crozet, VA	4.0	3.5	2322	$3,300	$1.42	13d	1	0.13mi
5981 McComb St Crozet, VA	3.0	3.0	2098	$2,545	$1.21	43d	1	1.07mi
5990 Cling Ln Crozet, VA	3.0	3.5	1725	$2,700	$1.57	21d	1	1.16mi
372 Joliet Ct Crozet, VA	3.0	2.5	1614	$2,250	$1.39	21d	1	1.27mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $105 · $1,260/yr
• Likely covers: gym

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $479,900 Active 52 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $479,900 Active 51 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $479,900 Active 50 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $479,900 Active 49 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $479,900 Active 48 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $479,900 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $479,900 Active 45 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $479,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $479,900 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $479,900 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $479,900 Active 40 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $479,900 Active 36 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $479,900 Active 35 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $479,900 Active 34 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $479,900 Active 33 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $479,900 Active 32 DOM
17. 2026-04-28
    listed $479,900 Active 729-char remark
18. 2025-07-22
    historical
19. 2025-05-30
    listed $459,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $37,779
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,882
• − Property taxes: −$7,198
• − Insurance: −$2,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,022
• − Management: −$3,022
• − HOA: −$1,260
• − Depreciation: −$13,961
• Taxable loss: −$19,967
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,792
• After-tax cash flow: $-6,421/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Albemarle County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100090
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 77% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $67,851
• Composite: 62.28/100
• National rank: #698
• State rank: #14 of 131 in VA

Livability — Crozet

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #1158

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Crozet, VA
• County: Albemarle County · 129,350 people
• City population: 9,148
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• Population (ZIP): 9,148
• Household income: $115,545
• Rent vs Own: 18.8% rent · 81.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 168.0

Population outlook (Albemarle County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 119,403 people
• By 2030: 125,829 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 137,705 · +15.3%
• By 2050: 148,058 · +24.0%
• By 2075: 172,223 · +44.2%
• By 2100: 185,628 · +55.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Asian 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 5% Iranian 5% Slovak 5%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Albemarle

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+34.1) · D 66.3% · R 32.2% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.1pp toward D · 2008: 18.0pp · 2024: 34.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+34.1 2020: D+33.5 2016: D+25.1 2012: D+12.0 2008: D+18.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -86.03%
• Current HPI: 254.0549
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Charlottesville, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+4.3% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-28 Listed $479,900 CAAR
• 2025-07-22 Listing Removed — CAAR
• 2025-05-30 Listed $459,900 CAAR