5840 Grain Mill Rd

Pahrump, NV 89061

$375,000D+

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,417 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Active · 34 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,678/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,967
• Tax + insurance: −$288
• HOA: −$17
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$562
• Net cashflow: $-156/mo
• Annual: $-1,872/yr
• Cap rate: 5.79%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.78%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.71%
• Cash to close: $105,000

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $375k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-156 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (7.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $268k (28.6% below list).
• It's been on market 34 days — a 3% lower offer ($364k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $268k (28.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $13k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $10k appreciation (2.8% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#30 in NV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, crime F, amenities F.
• Nye County School District (rural): math 20% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #16 of 17 in NV (top 94%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Hafen Elementary School (math 23% / reading 36%, grade F, #195 of 402 statewide, top 53%, 440 students, 100% FRL); Rosemary Clarke Middle School (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #62 of 109 statewide, top 58%, 1,060 students, 100% FRL); Pahrump Valley High School (math 14% / reading 41%, grade F, #74 of 131 statewide, top 56%, 1,362 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 54% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 285 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes.
• Nye County population projected at -28% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 3.4% in Pahrump — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($78k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 34 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 29% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.