2315 NE 19th Ct

Jensen Beach, FL 34957

$439,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · Built 1979 · SingleFamily · Pending · 59 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,702/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax + insurance: −$341
• HOA: −$13
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-522/mo
• Annual: $-6,268/yr
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $122,920

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $439k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-522 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (38.5% below list).
• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($426k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $270k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#432 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jensen Beach Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 558 students, 45% FRL); Stuart Middle School (math 55% / reading 55%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 867 students, 49% FRL); Jensen Beach High School (math 53% / reading 71%, grade B-, #98 of 667 statewide, top 15%, 1,584 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $439k implies a 536% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,702/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 946% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.