2315 NE 19th Ct · Jensen Beach, FL 34957

$439,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,610 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 59 Days on market

Built 1979 0.28 ac lot $273/sqft · 12% below area Est $497k · 12% under $13/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +12.7/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful pool home in the desirable Leilani Heights community of Jensen Beach! This well-maintained 3/2 residence offers a spacious layout with approximately 1,600 sq ft of living space, and an extra room for an office, gym, arts/crafts room or 4th bedroom an oversized and elevated .27-acre lot. Enjoy a functional split floor plan, spacious living areas, and a functional floor plan throughout. The property provides ample outdoor space with a beautiful screened in pool area and covered back patio area which is great for entertaining along with a complete set of accordion hurricane shutters. Ideally located just minutes from pristine beaches, downtown Jensen Beach, shopping, dining, and A-rated schools. Fantastic opportunity to own in a quiet, established neighborhood with low HOA.

Key facts

• Minutes from beaches
• Covered back patio
• Oversized lot

Tags

• OVERSIZED LOT
• SCREENED IN POOL AREA
• COVERED BACK PATIO
• MINUTES FROM BEACHES
• ESTABLISHED NEIGHBORHOOD
• LOW HOA

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $439k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-522 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $347k (21.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $270k (38.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $270k (38.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#432 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Martin (suburban): math 52% / reading 53% proficiency, ranked #24 of 73 in FL (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Jensen Beach Elementary School (math 67% / reading 67%, grade B+, #450 of 2,144 statewide, top 22%, 558 students, 45% FRL); Stuart Middle School (math 55% / reading 55%, grade B-, #180 of 571 statewide, top 32%, 867 students, 49% FRL); Jensen Beach High School (math 53% / reading 71%, grade B-, #98 of 667 statewide, top 15%, 1,584 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools at 43% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.0%/yr); 538 active listings in the ZIP; 17 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 737 units permitted in Martin County in 2024 (167 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,702/mo this rent would consume 46% of the median local household income ($70k/yr) (locally 946% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $13k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Martin County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 59 days — a 3% lower offer ($426k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $69k; list at $439k implies a 536% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $270,152 (38.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 59 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 38% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.87%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.10%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $496,614
• List price: $439,000
• Delta: -11.60%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1930 NE 23rd Ter	0.03mi	3/2.0	1,553 (-4%)	1mo	$410,000	$264	92
2387 NE 16th Ct	0.23mi	3/2.0	1,554 (-4%)	2mo	$275,000	$177	82
1567 NE 21st Ter	0.34mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,603 (-0%)	3mo	$420,000	$262	76
2790 NE Breezeway Cir	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,656 (+3%)	8mo	$600,000	$362	73
1574 NE Arch Ave Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,600 (-1%)	4mo	$432,500	$270	66
1567 NE Sottong Ave	0.63mi	3/2.0	1,586 (-2%)	9mo	$574,500	$362	61
1664 NE 24th St	0.24mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,462 (-9%)	10mo	$370,000	$253	61
1380 NE 29th Ter	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,663 (+3%)	5mo	$453,500	$273	58
1896 NE Media Ave	0.69mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,499 (-7%)	1mo	$332,500	$222	50
1906 NE Media Ave	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,532 (-5%)	6mo	$450,000	$294	50
1723 NE White Pine Ter	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,811 (+12%)	3mo	$500,000	$276	47
2859 NE Hickory Ridge Ave	0.67mi	3/2.0	1,392 (-14%)	7mo	$405,000	$291	41

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -27.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-109,924
• Equity at exit: $65,456

10-year hold

• IRR: -32.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.30×
• Total profit: $-160,343
• Equity at exit: $37,957

Cash invested: $122,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 34957

• Rents YoY: 1.0%
• Active inventory: 538
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,702 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,302
• Tax from tax record: −$158 /mo · $1,901/yr
• Insurance: −$183
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$567
• Net cashflow: $-522

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,363

Max offer price $346,733

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-274	-5% $-398	+0% $-522	+5% $-647	+10% $-771
Rent	-10% $-736	-5% $-629	+0% $-522	+5% $-416	+10% $-309
Rate	-1.0pp $-301	-0.5pp $-411	base $-522	+0.5pp $-636	+1.0pp $-752

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $109,750
• Closing costs: $13,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 17 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1903 NE Media Ave Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1324	$2,400	$1.81	25d	1	0.67mi
1999 NE Collins Cir Unit 3-80 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1067	$1,775	$1.66	25d	1	0.72mi
2831 NE Savannah Rd Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1248	$3,000	$2.40	25d	1	0.76mi
1411 NE 14th Ct #13 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$3,000	$2.73	25d	1	0.82mi
1366 NE Hilltop St Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1596	$2,700	$1.69	25d	1	0.82mi
2952 NE Savannah Rd Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1056	$3,000	$2.84	25d	1	0.85mi
1600 NE Dixie Hwy Unit 10-203 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1072	$2,300	$2.15	25d	1	0.86mi
3111 NE Savannah Rd Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1085	$1,995	$1.84	15d	1	0.89mi
3121 NE Savannah Rd Unit 3121 Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	1.0	1085	$2,095	$1.93	25d	1	0.91mi
3123 NE Savannah Rd Unit 3123 Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1100	$2,195	$2.00	25d	1	0.91mi
1550 NE 13th Ter Unit B16 Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1272	$1,800	$1.42	25d	1	0.92mi
3393 NE Sandra Dr Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1547	$2,700	$1.75	25d	1	1.01mi
3450 NE Linda Dr Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	1.0	1240	$2,500	$2.02	25d	1	1.08mi
3489 NE Linda Dr Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$3,150	$2.00	25d	1	1.09mi
1315 NE Flora Pl Jensen Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1400	$3,000	$2.14	25d	1	1.22mi
590 NE Lima Vias Jensen Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1295	$3,300	$2.55	25d	1	1.30mi
1001 NE Baker Rd Stuart, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	952	$2,660	$2.79	15d	27	1.40mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr
• Likely covers: poolgym

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-29
   price $439,000 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   Beautiful pool home in the desirable Leilani Heights community of Jensen Beach! This well-maintained 3/2 residence offers a spacious layout with approximately 1,600 sq ft of living space, and an extra room for an office, gym, arts/crafts room or 4th bedroom an oversized and elevated .27-acre lot. Enjoy a functional split floor plan, spacious living areas, and a functional floor plan throughout. The property provides ample outdoor space with a beautiful screened in pool area and covered back patio area which is great for entertaining along with a complete set of accordion hurricane shutters. Ideally located just minutes from pristine beaches, downtown Jensen Beach, shopping, dining, and A-rated schools. Fantastic opportunity to own in a quiet, established neighborhood with low HOA.

2. 2026-04-01
   price $469,999 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   Beautiful pool home in the desirable Leilani Heights community of Jensen Beach! This well-maintained 3/2 residence offers a spacious layout with approximately 1,600 sq ft of living space, and an extra room for an office, gym, arts/crafts room or 4th bedroom an oversized and elevated .27-acre lot. Enjoy a functional split floor plan, spacious living areas, and a functional floor plan throughout. The property provides ample outdoor space with a beautiful screened in pool area and covered back patio area which is great for entertaining along with a complete set of accordion hurricane shutters. Ideally located just minutes from pristine beaches, downtown Jensen Beach, shopping, dining, and A-rated schools. Fantastic opportunity to own in a quiet, established neighborhood with low HOA.

3. 2026-03-22
   listed $499,000 Active 792-char remark

   Show marketing remark (792 chars)

   Beautiful pool home in the desirable Leilani Heights community of Jensen Beach! This well-maintained 3/2 residence offers a spacious layout with approximately 1,600 sq ft of living space, and an extra room for an office, gym, arts/crafts room or 4th bedroom an oversized and elevated .27-acre lot. Enjoy a functional split floor plan, spacious living areas, and a functional floor plan throughout. The property provides ample outdoor space with a beautiful screened in pool area and covered back patio area which is great for entertaining along with a complete set of accordion hurricane shutters. Ideally located just minutes from pristine beaches, downtown Jensen Beach, shopping, dining, and A-rated schools. Fantastic opportunity to own in a quiet, established neighborhood with low HOA.

4. 1989-04-25
   soldstatus $69,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,901 · $158/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,644 · $304/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,743/yr (+$145/mo · 91.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,418
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,591
• − Property taxes: −$1,901
• − Insurance: −$2,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,593
• − Management: −$2,593
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$12,771
• Taxable loss: −$14,382
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,452
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,816/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Martin
• NCES district ID: 1201290
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 53% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,482
• Composite: 45.1/100
• National rank: #2690
• State rank: #24 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jensen Beach

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #432
• US rank: #7719

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jensen Beach, FL
• County: Martin County · 165,223 people
• City population: 23,462
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• Population (ZIP): 23,462
• Household income: $70,403
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 946.0

Population outlook (Martin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 172,383 people
• By 2030: 180,192 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 194,114 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 204,992 · +18.9%
• By 2075: 229,641 · +33.2%
• By 2100: 232,146 · +34.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 6% Asian 2% Black 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2% Cuban 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 90% English-only · Spanish 5% Other Indo-European 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Martin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+31.1) · D 34.1% · R 65.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.5pp toward R · 2008: -13.6pp · 2024: -31.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+31.1 2020: R+24.6 2016: R+26.9 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+13.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -319.66%
• Current HPI: 340.0172
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.00%
• Metro: Port St. Lucie, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+536.2% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Price Changed $439,000 Beaches MLS
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $469,999 Beaches MLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $499,000 Beaches MLS
• 1989-04-25 Sold (Public Records) $69,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,901 · +0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.