3020 Allred Dr

Auburndale, FL 33823

$339,000B

9 bd · 9.0 ba · 1,792 sqft · Built 1981 · MultiFamily · Active · 29 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $5,257/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,778
• Tax + insurance: −$565
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,104
• Net cashflow: $1,810/mo
• Annual: $21,723/yr
• Cap rate: 12.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.89%
• DSCR: 2.02
• 1% rule: 1.55%
• Cash to close: $94,920

Investor read

• This is a 3 × 3-bed/3.0-bath units multifamily listed at $339k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $2k ($22k/yr) — positive. Per door: $603/mo.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($5k rent vs $339k).
• It's been on market 29 days — a 2% lower offer ($334k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $334k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#48 in FL, #905 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute C-.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Lena Vista Elementary School (math 40% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,491 of 2,144 statewide, top 70%, 975 students, 56% FRL); Jere L. Stambaugh Middle (math 23% / reading 26%, grade F, #522 of 571 statewide, top 93%, 1,127 students, 65% FRL); Tenoroc High School (math 12% / reading 25%, grade F, #568 of 667 statewide, top 85%, 1,127 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 61% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 28% at this address vs 41% district-wide (-13 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Polk average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.2%/yr); 483 active listings in the ZIP; 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 22y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $100k; list at $339k implies a 239% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.2% rent growth), your $95k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $5,257/mo this rent would consume 88% of the median local household income ($71k/yr) (locally 821% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• Can we see the unit-by-unit rent roll, current vacancy, and any below-market leases? What's the average tenancy length?
• What capital expenditures (roof, boiler, parking lot, exteriors) have been made in the last 5 years, and what's planned in the next 2?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: kitchen cabinets — outdated and cluttered
• Major: bathroom fixtures — dated and worn
• Moderate: landscaping — needs trimming and mulching