28 Bay View Rd N

North Sea, NY 11968

$4,500,000F

7 bd · 2.0 ba · 5,446 sqft · Built 2010 · SingleFamily · Active · 53 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $23,238/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$23,598
• Tax + insurance: −$7,500
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,880
• Net cashflow: $-12,741/mo
• Annual: $-152,887/yr
• Cap rate: 2.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.13%
• DSCR: 0.46
• 1% rule: 0.52%
• Cash to close: $1,260,000

Investor read

• This is a 7-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $4.50M. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13k ($-153k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.66M (41.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.32M (48.4% below list).
• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($4.37M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $2.32M (48.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $31k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $135k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,063 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.21M; list at $4.50M implies a 272% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 6.1% in North Sea — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.
• At $23,238/mo this rent would consume 179% of the median local household income ($156k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.