28 Bay View Rd N · North Sea, NY 11968

$4,500,000

7 bd · 2.0 ba · 5,446 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 53 Days on market

Built 2010 Excellent condition 0.51 ac lot $826/sqft · at area comps Est $4.533M · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Rent growth +5.0/5.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Cash flow +3.9/30.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +0.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

New to the market, this expansive Bay View Oaks residence offers not only luxury waterfront community living but also a rare investment opportunity with exceptional rental potential. Set within a coveted community with direct access and views to Little Peconic Bay, the home combines scale, comfort, and amenities ideally suited for high-demand Hamptons rentals. Situated on just over half an acre, the home features 8,000 +/- sq. ft. living space (6,000 sq. ft. above ground & an additional 2,000 sq. ft. of finished space in the lower level). There are 6 bedrooms (plus 2 bonus rooms), 8.5 baths, and a large 40'x20' pool. Throughout the home, find 10' ceilings and gorgeous hardwood floors.

Key facts

• Boat launch access
• Large 40x20 pool
• 0.51 acre lot

Tags

• LARGE 40X20 POOL
• OVERSIZE KOSHER KITCHEN
• PRIVATE COMMUNITY BEACH
• BOAT LAUNCH ACCESS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 7-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $4.50M. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-13k ($-153k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $2.66M (41.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $2.32M (48.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $2.32M (48.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.9% vs local median 6.1% in North Sea — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#1,063 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: housing C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Southampton Union Free School District (suburban): math 53% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #293 of 590 in NY (top 50%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Southampton Elementary School (math 42% / reading 57%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 376 students, 51% FRL); Southampton Intermediate School (math 30% / reading 47%, grade F, #437 of 729 statewide, top 60%, 363 students, 44% FRL); Southampton High School (math 98%, 595 students, 48% FRL) — zoned schools average 48% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+14.6%/yr); 138 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $23,238/mo this rent would consume 179% of the median local household income ($156k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $31k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $135k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 53 days — a 3% lower offer ($4.37M) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $1.21M; list at $4.50M implies a 272% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $2,323,781 (48.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 53 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 48% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.52% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -12.13%
• DSCR: 0.46
• GRM: 16.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $4,532,533
• List price: $4,500,000
• Delta: -0.72%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 6 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
18 Bay View Rd N	0.05mi	6/8.0 (-1)	6,000 (+10%)	12mo	$4,550,000	$758	51
26 Pine Tree Rd	0.36mi	7/6.5	4,932 (-9%)	1mo	$3,900,000	$791	49
6 Ocean View Pkwy	1.01mi	6/5.5 (-1)	5,500 (+1%)	1mo	$3,410,000	$620	43
1698 Noyack Rd	0.21mi	7/9.5	6,300 (+16%)	26mo	$4,650,000	$738	25
34 Turtle Pond Rd	0.98mi	7/6.5	5,300 (-3%)	27mo	$4,050,000	$764	22
2 Grove Ave	1.19mi	7/7.5	6,715 (+23%)	2mo	$5,140,000	$765	18
222 Northside Dr	0.74mi	6/6.0 (-1)	4,600 (-16%)	18mo	$3,040,000	$661	5

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.12×
• Total profit: $-1,417,493
• Equity at exit: $670,965

10-year hold

• IRR: -22.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.36×
• Total profit: $-1,718,841
• Equity at exit: $389,078

Cash invested: $1,260,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 2 active · 2 under contract
• Months of supply: 12.0 mo (8%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $5,822,500 ($1061/sqft)
• Median days on market: 222 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: -21.6% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 11968

• Home prices YoY: -28.6%
• Rents YoY: 14.6%
• Active inventory: 138
• Price-to-rent: 16.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $23,238 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$23,598
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$5,625 /mo · $67,500/yr
• Insurance: −$1,875
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$4,880
• Net cashflow: $-12,741

Break-even live

Break-even rent $39,365

Max offer price $2,656,412

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-9,631	-5% $-11,186	+0% $-12,741	+5% $-14,296	+10% $-15,850
Rent	-10% $-14,576	-5% $-13,659	+0% $-12,741	+5% $-11,823	+10% $-10,905
Rate	-1.0pp $-10,474	-0.5pp $-11,596	base $-12,741	+0.5pp $-13,907	+1.0pp $-15,093

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,125,000
• Closing costs: $135,000
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
29 Bittersweet Ln Sag Harbor, NY	6.0	6.5	5000	$15,000	$3.00	0d	1	1.34mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 53 DOM
2. 2026-06-13
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-09
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 49 DOM
4. 2026-06-08
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 48 DOM
5. 2026-06-07
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 47 DOM
6. 2026-06-04
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 44 DOM
7. 2026-06-03
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 43 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 42 DOM
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $4,500,000 Active 41 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    days on market $4,500,000 Active 40 DOM
11. 2026-04-21
    listed $4,500,000 Active 2359-char remark
12. 2026-03-22
    historical
13. 2025-11-22
    status Active
14. 2025-11-22
    historical
15. 2025-10-14
    listed $4,500,000 Active
16. 2011-04-22
    soldstatus $1,210,000
17. 2006-12-13
    soldstatus $632,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $278,854
• − Mortgage interest: −$252,070
• − Property taxes: −$67,500
• − Insurance: −$22,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$22,308
• − Management: −$22,308
• − Depreciation: −$130,909
• Taxable loss: −$238,742
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$57,298
• After-tax cash flow: $-95,589/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 10 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This expansive waterfront home in Bay View Oaks is in excellent condition with no visible repairs needed. The large pool and well-maintained landscaping make it an ideal investment property.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Landscaping and pool maintenance — Maintaining the landscaping and pool will enhance the curb appeal and attract potential buyers or renters. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Southampton Intermediate School F NY #437/729 Nat'l #6,453/14,009 Middle Southampton Intermediate School F NY #437/729 Nat'l #6,453/14,009 High Southampton High School

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Southampton Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3627540
• Math proficiency: 53% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 4.00%
• Median HH income: $85,977
• Composite: 47.9/100
• National rank: #2213
• State rank: #293 of 590 in NY

D Composite livability gradescore 58/100

Livability — North Sea

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #1063
• US rank: #21178

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing C- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: North Sea, NY
• County: Suffolk County · 1,505,262 people
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• Population (ZIP): 15,312
• Household income: $156,219
• Rent vs Own: 15.1% rent · 84.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 4% of renters

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Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 9% Asian 3% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Scotch-Irish 2% Danish 2%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 11% Other Indo-European 3% German/W. Germanic 2%

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Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -184.86%
• Current HPI: 461.1144
• Rent YoY: ▲ 14.62%
• Metro: New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+612.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-15 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $4,500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-22 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-22 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-14 Listed $4,500,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-04-22 Sold (Public Records) $1,210,000 Public Records
• 2006-12-13 Sold (Public Records) $632,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.5%/yr

Latest (2024): $7,130 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.