170 Cooks Falls Store Rd

Roscoe, NY 12776

$209,000C

8 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,500 sqft · Built 1900 · SingleFamily · Pending · 864 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,132/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax + insurance: −$431
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $158/mo
• Annual: $1,894/yr
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.60%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 1.02%
• Cash to close: $58,520

Investor read

• This is a 8-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $209k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $209k).
• It's been on market 864 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,100 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Roscoe Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #689 of 755 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $160k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $209k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 1.3% in Roscoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 864 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
• What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?