170 Cooks Falls Store Rd · Roscoe, NY 12776

$209,000

8 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,500 sqft · SingleFamily · 864 Days on market

Built 1900 0.57 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.2/30.0
• Appreciation +8.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +5.2/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

On the banks of the Beaverkill River, a throwback to the boarding house era when the railroad was King. Beautiful location with tremendous potential. Once renovated this will be ideal for rentals and large enough for your own space too. Beautiful stone fireplace , large front porch that wraps to the side. Fishing, tubing and swimming in the clear waters of the Historic Beaverkill. Low tax Town of Colchester. Easy access to Route 17/86.

Key facts

• 0.57 acre lot
• Built 1900
• Listed 864 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 8-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $209k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $158 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $209k).
• Recommended offer: $184k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.6% vs local median 1.3% in Roscoe — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 56/100 on livability (#1,100 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A, housing B; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Roscoe Central School District (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #689 of 755 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 39 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Delaware County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (6.1% local appreciation)).
• Delaware County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.1% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 864 days — a 12% lower offer ($184k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $160k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $75k; list at $209k implies a 179% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; built in 1900 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $183,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 864 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1900 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. This sits on a lake — are riparian / water-frontage rights deeded with the parcel? Any dock permits, shoreline easements, or HOA water-use restrictions?
8. What's the documented flood / surge / shoreline-erosion history here (FEMA AND non-FEMA — e.g., storm surge, creek backup, septic-field saturation)?
9. Any water-quality or seasonal algae-bloom issues that affect tenant satisfaction or short-term-rental demand?
10. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
11. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
12. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.02% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.60%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 8.2

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.23×
• Total profit: $72,232
• Equity at exit: $133,252

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.49×
• Total profit: $204,304
• Equity at exit: $243,273

Cash invested: $58,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12776

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 39
• Price-to-rent: 8.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,132 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,096
• Tax from tax record: −$277 /mo · $3,326/yr
• Insurance: −$87
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $158

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,933

Max offer price $209,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $276	-5% $217	+0% $158	+5% $99	+10% $40
Rent	-10% $-11	-5% $74	+0% $158	+5% $242	+10% $326
Rate	-1.0pp $263	-0.5pp $211	base $158	+0.5pp $104	+1.0pp $49

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,250
• Closing costs: $6,270
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-03-27
   status Pending
2. 2025-09-12
   price $209,000
3. 2025-09-12
   status Active
4. 2025-08-28
   historical
5. 2025-05-12
   price $229,000
6. 2025-02-24
   price $249,000
7. 2024-10-21
   price $269,000
8. 2024-10-19
   historical
9. 2024-08-28
   price $299,000
10. 2024-01-26
    price $332,000
11. 2024-01-26
    price $332,000
12. 2023-10-30
    listed $369,000 Active
13. 2023-10-30
    listed $369,000 Active
14. 2021-04-02
    soldstatus $75,000
15. 2021-03-29
    soldstatus $75,000 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    On the banks of the Beaverkill River, a throwback to the boarding house era when the railroad was King. Beautiful location with tremendous potential. Once renovated this will be ideal for rentals and large enough for your own space too. Beautiful stone fireplace , large front porch that wraps to the side. Fishing, tubing and swimming in the clear waters of the Historic Beaverkill. Low tax Town of Colchester. Easy access to Route 17/86.

16. 2020-03-09
    listed $90,000 440-char remark

    Show marketing remark (440 chars)

    On the banks of the Beaverkill River, a throwback to the boarding house era when the railroad was King. Beautiful location with tremendous potential. Once renovated this will be ideal for rentals and large enough for your own space too. Beautiful stone fireplace , large front porch that wraps to the side. Fishing, tubing and swimming in the clear waters of the Historic Beaverkill. Low tax Town of Colchester. Easy access to Route 17/86.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,326 · $277/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,429 · $286/mo
• Expected delta: +$103/yr (+$9/mo · 3.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 77% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥90°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,588
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,707
• − Property taxes: −$3,326
• − Insurance: −$1,842
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,047
• − Management: −$2,047
• − Depreciation: −$6,080
• Taxable loss: −$1,462
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$351
• After-tax cash flow: $2,245/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Roscoe Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625020
• Math proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $50,743
• Composite: 33.05/100
• National rank: #10658
• State rank: #689 of 755 in NY

Livability — Roscoe

• Score: 56/100
• State rank: #1100
• US rank: #22431

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime F Employment C Housing B Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,046

Population outlook (Delaware County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 42,668 people
• By 2030: 40,337 · -5.5%
• By 2040: 35,514 · -16.8%
• By 2050: 31,265 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 24,455 · -42.7%
• By 2100: 19,529 · -54.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (86%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 86% Hispanic / Latino 10% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 6%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 5% Romanian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Delaware

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 40.1% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -5.2pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+29.2 2012: R+9.6 2008: R+5.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.14%
• Current HPI: 298.015
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+132.2% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-27 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Price Changed $209,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-09-12 Relisted — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-28 Listing Removed — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $229,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-02-24 Price Changed $249,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-21 Price Changed $269,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-10-19 Listing Removed — UNYREIS
• 2024-08-28 Price Changed $299,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-26 Price Changed $332,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-26 Price Changed $332,000 UNYREIS
• 2023-10-30 Listed $369,000 UNYREIS
• 2023-10-30 Listed $369,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-04-02 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2021-03-29 Sold (MLS) $75,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-03-09 Listed $90,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,326 · -0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.