620 Spanish Dr N

Longboat Key, FL 34228

$370,000B

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,357 sqft · Built 1967 · Condo · Pending · 139 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $6,217/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,940
• Tax + insurance: −$837
• HOA: −$1,340
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$1,306
• Net cashflow: $794/mo
• Annual: $9,531/yr
• Cap rate: 10.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.14%
• DSCR: 1.63
• 1% rule: 1.68%
• Cash to close: $103,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $370k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $794 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($6k rent vs $370k).
• It's been on market 139 days — a 12% lower offer ($326k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $326k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (0.7% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#693 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+; Watch: schools C-, housing C-, amenities F.
• Manatee (suburban): math 54% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #26 of 73 in FL (top 36%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo; HOA is 22% of rent.
• Market conditions: 539 active listings in the ZIP; 16 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 7,472 units permitted in Manatee County in 2024 (1,782 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Manatee County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $25k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (0.7% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $104k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 6, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.3% vs local median 0.5% in Longboat Key — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• At $6,217/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($158k/yr) (locally 98% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 139 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.