11216 Juniper Mesa Rd

Littlerock, CA 93543

$210,000C

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,570 sqft · Built 1944 · SingleFamily · Active · 23 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,459/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax + insurance: −$293
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $549/mo
• Annual: $6,585/yr
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.20%
• DSCR: 1.50
• 1% rule: 1.17%
• Cash to close: $58,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#1,355 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Keppel Union Elementary (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,089 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 237 active listings in the ZIP; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $210k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.