11216 Juniper Mesa Rd · Littlerock, CA 93543

$210,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,570 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 23 Days on market

Built 1944 6.16 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.4/30.0
• DSCR +9.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.7/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Littlerock home on almost 6 acres. Mountain views. Property being sold as is.

Key facts

• Buildable lots
• Working well
• 10 acres

Tags

• 10 ACRES
• BUILDABLE LOTS
• WORKING WELL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached 1-car garage
• Utilities: Private well water; Septic system; Propane service
• Home design: Single-story ranch-style home; Facing/entry level: Ground level
• Construction: Frame construction; Composition shingle roof; Concrete slab foundation; Built on a single story
• Exterior features: RV access available; Pets allowed; Dirt streets

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas range
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Wall/window evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Gas range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $210k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $549 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $210k).
• Recommended offer: $207k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 43/100 on livability (#1,355 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing B; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Keppel Union Elementary (rural): math 23% / reading 33% proficiency, ranked #1,089 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 74% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 237 active listings in the ZIP; 19,697 units permitted in Los Angeles County in 2024 (9,426 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Los Angeles County population projected at +9% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $59k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 23 days — a 2% lower offer ($207k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 15y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $210k implies a 192% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1944 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $206,850 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1944 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.17% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.43%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.20%
• DSCR: 1.50
• GRM: 7.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $491,410
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10814 Juniper Mesa Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,676 (+7%)	13mo	$525,000	$313	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 0.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $925
• Equity at exit: $31,312

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.78×
• Total profit: $45,819
• Equity at exit: $18,157

Cash invested: $58,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93543

• Home prices YoY: -28.2%
• Active inventory: 237
• Price-to-rent: 7.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,459 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,101
• Tax from tax record: −$205 /mo · $2,464/yr
• Insurance: −$88
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$516
• Net cashflow: $549

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,765

Max offer price $210,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $668	-5% $608	+0% $549	+5% $489	+10% $430
Rent	-10% $354	-5% $452	+0% $549	+5% $646	+10% $743
Rate	-1.0pp $655	-0.5pp $602	base $549	+0.5pp $494	+1.0pp $439

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $52,500
• Closing costs: $6,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $210,000 Active 23 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $210,000 Active 22 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $210,000 Active 21 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $210,000 Active 20 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $210,000 Active 17 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $210,000 Active 14 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $210,000 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $210,000 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $210,000 Active 9 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $210,000 Active 8 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $210,000 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $210,000 Active 6 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $210,000 Active 5 DOM
15. 2026-05-26
    listed $210,000 Active
16. 2012-04-23
    historical
17. 2012-04-20
    soldstatus $72,000 77-char remark

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    Littlerock home on almost 6 acres. Mountain views. Property being sold as is.

18. 2012-02-20
    listed $74,990 77-char remark

    Show marketing remark (77 chars)

    Littlerock home on almost 6 acres. Mountain views. Property being sold as is.

19. 2012-01-23
    price $90,250
20. 2011-12-23
    listed $95,000 Active
21. 1990-08-16
    soldstatus $150,000
22. 1972-06-12
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,464 · $205/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,464 · $205/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 40 unhealthy d/yr today · 46 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,511
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,763
• − Property taxes: −$2,464
• − Insurance: −$1,050
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,361
• − Management: −$2,361
• − Depreciation: −$6,109
• Taxable income: $3,404
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$817
• After-tax cash flow: $5,768/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Keppel Union Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0619440
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 33% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $48,099
• Composite: 27.26/100
• National rank: #12432
• State rank: #1089 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Littlerock

• Score: 43/100
• State rank: #1355
• US rank: #26951

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing B Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 12,217

Population outlook (Los Angeles County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 10,940,515 people
• By 2030: 11,256,481 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 11,729,929 · +7.2%
• By 2050: 11,948,407 · +9.2%
• By 2075: 11,818,114 · +8.0%
• By 2100: 10,842,928 · -0.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (76%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 76% Two or more races 23% White 20% Black 1% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 69%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Romanian 3% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada
• Languages at home: 44% English-only · Spanish 54% Other Indo-European 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Los Angeles

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+32.9) · D 64.8% · R 31.9% · Other 3.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.4pp toward R · 2008: 40.4pp · 2024: 32.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+32.9 2020: D+44.2 2016: D+48.0 2012: D+40.0 2008: D+40.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -164.77%
• Current HPI: 419.0801
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+425.0% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-26 Listed $210,000 AVMLS
• 2012-04-23 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2012-04-20 Sold (MLS) $72,000 AVMLS
• 2012-02-20 Listed $74,990 AVMLS
• 2012-01-23 Price Changed $90,250 CRMLS
• 2011-12-23 Listed $95,000 CRMLS
• 1990-08-16 Sold (Public Records) $150,000 Public Records
• 1972-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,464 · +9.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.