23750 Carson Dr #17

Pioneer, CA 95666

$120,000C+

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · Built 1976 · Manufactured · Active · 61 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,833/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax + insurance: −$200
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $619/mo
• Annual: $7,429/yr
• Cap rate: 12.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.11%
• DSCR: 1.98
• 1% rule: 1.53%
• Cash to close: $33,600

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#419 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Amador County Unified (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #330 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pioneer Magnet School For The Visual And Performing Arts (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 153 students, 56% FRL); Jackson Junior High (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #260 of 498 statewide, top 54%, 346 students, 47% FRL); Amador High (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #750 of 1,170 statewide, top 66%, 702 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Amador County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Amador County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.