23750 Carson Dr #17 · Pioneer, CA 95666

$120,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,528 sqft · Manufactured · 61 Days on market

Built 1976 0.33 ac lot $79/sqft · 26% above area Est $95k · 26% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully updated 1976 manufactured home offering space, privacy, and modern upgrades throughout. This expanded single-wide features approximately 1,528 sq ft of living space on a generous . 33-acre lot, ideally tucked into a quiet corner of an all-ages mobile home park. Significant improvements provide peace of mind, including a new roof (2025), fully redone plumbing (2021), and updated kitchen and bathroom (2021). Most windows and the sliding glass door were also replaced in 2021, enhancing both energy efficiency and natural light (side room excluded). The property offers 2 bedrooms and 1 bathroom, along with a large deck on the south side of the home, perfect for relaxi

Key facts

• Large deck
• Updated kitchen
• Quiet corner

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN
• UPDATED BATHROOM
• NEW ROOF
• FULLY REDONE PLUMBING
• LARGE DECK
• QUIET CORNER

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Located in a park setting; directions: Turn on Carson Drive and drive to the end. Home is along the back of the park.
• HOA & community: No association; Not a senior community; Land lease: No (listed land lease amount present but land lease set to No)

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking; no garage
• Utilities: Propane; Underground utilities; Internet available; 220V in kitchen; Septic system; Water from district
• Home design: Manufactured home in park; Single wide; Built in 1976; Updated/remodeled
• Construction: Composition roof; Biltmore make; Skirting: Other
• Exterior features: Backyard; Shed(s); Storage area

Interior

• Kitchen: Free standing gas range; Free standing gas oven; Free standing refrigerator; Microwave; See remarks (additional appliance details)
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Tile flooring
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tile and tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Wall furnace heating; Wood stove; Evaporative cooler
• Interior features: Deck attached to living area; Uncovered deck; Storage area; Updated/remodeled interior; Synthetic kitchen countertops; Pets allowed (with limits)
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry room with electric hookups only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $619 ($7k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $113k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#419 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Amador County Unified (town): math 23% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #330 of 517 in CA (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Pioneer Magnet School For The Visual And Performing Arts (math 17% / reading 37%, grade F, #917 of 1,571 statewide, top 60%, 153 students, 56% FRL); Jackson Junior High (math 20% / reading 31%, grade F, #260 of 498 statewide, top 54%, 346 students, 47% FRL); Amador High (math 17% / reading 42%, grade F, #750 of 1,170 statewide, top 66%, 702 students, 35% FRL).
• Market conditions: 152 active listings in the ZIP; 66 units permitted in Amador County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Amador County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 61 days — a 6% lower offer ($113k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,800 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 61 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1976 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.53% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 22.11%
• DSCR: 1.98
• GRM: 5.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $95,000
• List price: $120,000
• Delta: 26.32%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
23750 Carson Dr #27	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,568 (+3%)	3mo	$95,000	$61	82
23750 Carson Dr #35	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,440 (-6%)	12mo	$15,000	$10	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 14.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.60×
• Total profit: $20,012
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.6%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $68,311
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95666

• Active inventory: 152
• Price-to-rent: 5.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,833 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$385
• Net cashflow: $619

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $702	-5% $661	+0% $619	+5% $578	+10% $536
Rent	-10% $474	-5% $547	+0% $619	+5% $692	+10% $764
Rate	-1.0pp $680	-0.5pp $650	base $619	+0.5pp $588	+1.0pp $556

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $120,000 Active 61 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $120,000 Active 58 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $120,000 Active 57 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $120,000 Active 56 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $120,000 Active 55 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 53 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $120,000 Active 52 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 49 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 48 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $120,000 Active 47 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $120,000 Active 44 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 43 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 42 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 41 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 40 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 8/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 3 d/yr ≥98°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 26 unhealthy d/yr today · 32 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,001
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,760
• − Management: −$1,760
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $5,868
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,408
• After-tax cash flow: $6,021/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Amador County Unified
• NCES district ID: 0602450
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,428
• Composite: 26.67/100
• National rank: #7163
• State rank: #330 of 517 in CA

Livability — Pioneer

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #419
• US rank: #14266

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pioneer, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,089

Population outlook (Amador County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 35,295 people
• By 2030: 34,147 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 31,618 · -10.4%
• By 2050: 29,913 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 27,308 · -22.6%
• By 2100: 23,465 · -33.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Scottish 4% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Amador

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.8) · D 34.7% · R 62.6% · Other 2.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.2pp toward R · 2008: -14.6pp · 2024: -27.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.8 2020: R+24.4 2016: R+25.2 2012: R+19.0 2008: R+14.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -107.84%
• Current HPI: 143.0962
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Property tax history

-2.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $120 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.