2531 Cienaga #25

Oceano, CA 93445

$175,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 654 sqft · Built 2002 · Manufactured · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,728/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax + insurance: −$292
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $156/mo
• Annual: $1,870/yr
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.82%
• DSCR: 1.17
• 1% rule: 0.99%
• Cash to close: $49,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (1.3% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#346 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A, health & safety A, housing B; Watch: crime D, amenities D, schools F.
• Lucia Mar Unified (town): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #433 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,104 units permitted in San Luis Obispo County in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).
• San Luis Obispo County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $175k implies a 1358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.5% in Oceano — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.