2531 Cienaga #25 · Oceano, CA 93445

$175,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 654 sqft · Manufactured public records · 30 Days on market

Built 2002 Est $146k · 20% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.2/30.0
• DSCR +5.7/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.0/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Good Full Or Part Time Home. Owner May Carry With 15% Down! Age Restriction May Apply. 7x19 Pop-out.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• End unit
• Community amenities

Tags

• BEACH GETAWAY
• END UNIT
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• WELL MAINTAINED INTERIOR
• CLOSE TO THE BEACH
• COMMUNITY AMENITIES

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Location notes: Cienaga (Hwy 1), Elm is the closest cross street; Coordinates available
• Financial info: Land lease of $514.47 per month (seller provided amount)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Park name: Casa del Rey; Community features: Biking; Manager approval required; Pets: contact manager

Exterior

• Parking: Assigned parking
• Utilities: Public/district water; Public sewer; Natural gas connected; Electricity connected; Cable connected
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home (WESTWOOD 14 model); Mobile home remains on site; Single story; Entry on first level
• Construction: Built as recorded by assessor; Mobile home dimensions approximately 13 ft by 48 ft; Shallow information from assessor (living area source: assessor's data)
• Exterior features: Private pool; One shed on the property; Lot is level/flat; Has a view

Interior

• Kitchen: Garbage disposal; Gas range and gas oven; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: Main floor bedrooms (including primary)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; Open floor plan; Single-level home; Main floor primary bedroom; All bedrooms on the main floor; Walk-in closet
• Laundry & utility: Washer included; Dryer included; Has laundry

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $156 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (1.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $172k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.4% vs local median 2.5% in Oceano — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#346 in CA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A, health & safety A, housing B; Watch: crime D, amenities D, schools F.
• Lucia Mar Unified (town): math 42% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #433 of 1,400 in CA (top 31%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 36 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,104 units permitted in San Luis Obispo County in 2024 (273 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Luis Obispo County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 32y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $12k; list at $175k implies a 1358% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $172,375 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.82%
• DSCR: 1.17
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $145,842
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2531 Cienaga St #27	0.00mi	1/1.0	621 (-5%)	24mo	$81,457	$131	72
2531 Cienaga St #39	0.00mi	2/1.0 (+1)	700 (+7%)	24mo	$209,900	$300	64
2300 Cienaga #36	0.25mi	2/2.0 (+1)	720 (+10%)	5mo	$250,000	$347	58
2531 Cienaga St #28	0.00mi	2/2.0 (+1)	750 (+15%)	10mo	$164,000	$219	58
1241 Farroll Ave #58	0.71mi	2/1.0 (+1)	696 (+6%)	8mo	$155,000	$223	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-18,407
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-3,142
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 93445

• Home prices YoY: -24.0%
• Active inventory: 36
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,728 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$219 /mo · $2,625/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$363
• Net cashflow: $156

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,531

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2531 Cienaga St #24 Oceano, CA	1.0	1.0	352	$1,725	$4.90	23d	1	0.04mi
1480 S 13th St Unit 1480B Oceano, CA	1.0	1.0	500	$1,650	$3.30	14d	1	0.91mi
230 S Alpine St Unit 04 Arroyo Grande, CA	—	1.0	400	$1,900	$4.75	23d	1	1.28mi

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 30 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 29 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 28 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 25 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 24 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-05-19
    listed $175,000 Active
17. 1995-03-01
    historical

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    Good Full Or Part Time Home. Owner May Carry With 15% Down! Age Restriction May Apply. 7x19 Pop-out.

18. 1995-03-01
    soldstatus $12,000 100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    Good Full Or Part Time Home. Owner May Carry With 15% Down! Age Restriction May Apply. 7x19 Pop-out.

19. 1994-02-24
    listed $13,500

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    Good Full Or Part Time Home. Owner May Carry With 15% Down! Age Restriction May Apply. 7x19 Pop-out.

20. 1994-02-24
    listed $13,500 100-char remark

    Show marketing remark (100 chars)

    Good Full Or Part Time Home. Owner May Carry With 15% Down! Age Restriction May Apply. 7x19 Pop-out.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥80°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 10 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,737
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$2,625
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,659
• − Management: −$1,659
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$974
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$234
• After-tax cash flow: $2,104/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lucia Mar Unified
• NCES district ID: 0623080
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 56% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $62,681
• Composite: 45.19/100
• National rank: #5782
• State rank: #433 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Oceano

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #346
• US rank: #11833

Category grades

Amenities D Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A Housing B Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oceano, CA
• Population (ZIP): 6,812

Population outlook (San Luis Obispo County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 306,977 people
• By 2030: 320,378 · +4.4%
• By 2040: 343,933 · +12.0%
• By 2050: 366,853 · +19.5%
• By 2075: 428,329 · +39.5%
• By 2100: 460,687 · +50.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.55)
• Race & ethnicity: White 51% Hispanic / Latino 44% Two or more races 17% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 41% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Portuguese 2% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada
• Languages at home: 71% English-only · Spanish 28%

Political lean MEDSL · San Luis Obispo

• 2024 margin: D (+10.9) · D 53.9% · R 43.1% · Other 3.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.5pp toward D · 2008: 5.4pp · 2024: 10.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.9 2020: D+13.1 2016: D+8.3 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+5.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.63%
• Current HPI: 394.4039
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+1196.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $175,000 CRMLS
• 1995-03-01 Sold (MLS) $12,000 CRMLS
• 1995-03-01 Listing Removed — NSBCRMLS
• 1994-02-24 Listed $13,500 CRMLS
• 1994-02-24 Listed $13,500 NSBCRMLS

Property tax history

-0.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $336 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.