3445 Beaver Dam Rd

Carrsville, VA 23851

$129,000C+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1993 · Manufactured · Active · 10 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,477/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax + insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $393/mo
• Annual: $4,714/yr
• Cap rate: 9.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.05%
• DSCR: 1.58
• 1% rule: 1.15%
• Cash to close: $36,120

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).
• Only 10 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#573 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Isle Of Wight County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #28 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carrsville Elementary (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #220 of 1,108 statewide, top 22%, 252 students, 48% FRL); Windsor High (math 62% / reading 82%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 527 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 257 units permitted in Isle of Wight County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Isle of Wight County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $129k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.