3445 Beaver Dam Rd · Carrsville, VA 23851

$129,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 7 Days on market

Built 1993 1.35 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +27.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.8/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +6.5/10.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming mobile home in desirable Carrsville, VA offers the perfect blend of peaceful exclusion & convenient access to modern amenities. Nestled in a rural setting, it provides privacy and a sense of escape while remaining just minutes from the 'City of Franklin for shopping, dining, and everyday conveniences. Buyers will appreciate the sought after schools of Isle of Wight County, known for their strong academic programs & community focus. Whether you are looking for a cozy starter home or a low maintenance retreat, this property delivers comfort, location, and value in one beautiful package. Don't miss your opportunity to call this hidden gem home!

Key facts

• Privacy
• Convenient access
• Tranquil setting

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• TRANQUIL SETTING
• PRIVACY
• LOW MAINTENANCE RETREAT
• HIDDEN GEM

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No HOA fees

Exterior

• Parking: Off-street parking
• Utilities: Private water (well); Septic sewer; Electric water heater; Electric power
• Home design: Detached mobile home; Single-story; Crawlspace foundation
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Well water; Wooded lot; Storage shed

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range
• Bedrooms: First-floor bedroom with full bathroom
• Flooring: Laminate; Vinyl
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heat pump for heating and cooling
• Interior features: Laminate and vinyl flooring; Workshop; Ramp for accessibility; Bedroom and full bathroom on the first floor
• Laundry & utility: Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $129k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $393 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $129k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 42/100 on livability (#573 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Isle Of Wight County Public School District (rural): math 62% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #28 of 131 in VA (top 21%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Carrsville Elementary (math 72% / reading 77%, grade A, #220 of 1,108 statewide, top 22%, 252 students, 48% FRL); Windsor High (math 62% / reading 82%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 527 students, 39% FRL).
• Market conditions: 137 active listings in the ZIP; 257 units permitted in Isle of Wight County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $892 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Isle of Wight County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $36k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 7 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 3y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $129k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $129,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
3. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
4. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.15% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.95%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.05%
• DSCR: 1.58
• GRM: 7.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 2.9%
• Equity multiple: 1.11×
• Total profit: $4,064
• Equity at exit: $19,234

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.98×
• Total profit: $35,551
• Equity at exit: $11,154

Cash invested: $36,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23851

• Home prices YoY: -10.2%
• Active inventory: 137
• Price-to-rent: 7.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,477 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$676
• Tax from tax record: −$44 /mo · $526/yr
• Insurance: −$54
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$310
• Net cashflow: $393

Break-even live

Break-even rent $980

Max offer price $129,000

Occupancy floor 68%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $466	-5% $429	+0% $393	+5% $356	+10% $320
Rent	-10% $276	-5% $334	+0% $393	+5% $451	+10% $509
Rate	-1.0pp $458	-0.5pp $426	base $393	+0.5pp $359	+1.0pp $325

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $32,250
• Closing costs: $3,870
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $129,000 Active 7 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $129,000 Active 6 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $129,000 Active 5 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $129,000 Active 4 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   remarks 668-char remark
6. 2026-06-13
   listed $129,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $526 · $44/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,058 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: +$532/yr (+$44/mo · 101.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,725
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,226
• − Property taxes: −$526
• − Insurance: −$645
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,418
• − Management: −$1,418
• − Depreciation: −$3,753
• Taxable income: $2,739
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$657
• After-tax cash flow: $4,056/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Isle Of Wight County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102010
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -21.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $64,756
• Composite: 58.67/100
• National rank: #982
• State rank: #28 of 131 in VA

Livability — Carrsville

• Score: 42/100
• State rank: #573
• US rank: #26989

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 13,481

Population outlook (Isle of Wight County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,005 people
• By 2030: 40,089 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 41,703 · +6.9%
• By 2050: 42,745 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 47,222 · +21.1%
• By 2100: 47,810 · +22.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 45% White 44% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 2% Asian 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · South Korea, Canada
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Isle of Wight

• 2024 margin: R (+19.8) · D 39.6% · R 59.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.4pp toward R · 2008: -13.4pp · 2024: -19.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+19.8 2020: R+18.4 2016: R+21.0 2012: R+14.7 2008: R+13.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -33.51%
• Current HPI: 293.564
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+51.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-11 Listed $129,000 REINMLS
• 2024-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $65,000 Public Records
• 2024-01-24 Pending — REINMLS
• 2024-01-16 Relisted — REINMLS
• 2023-12-13 Pending — REINMLS
• 2023-12-11 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2023-11-24 Pending — REINMLS
• 2023-11-14 Listed $85,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $526 · +3.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.