14894 E Main St

Justice, OK 74019

$219,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Built 1999 · Land · Active · 50 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,585/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$365
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-261/mo
• Annual: $-3,131/yr
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.11%
• DSCR: 0.77
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (27.6% below list).
• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $159k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#90 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Justus-Tiawah (town): math 37% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #30 of 270 in OK (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 608 units permitted in Rogers County in 2024 (7 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Rogers County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.