14894 E Main St · Justice, OK 74019

$219,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,680 sqft · Land · 50 Days on market

Built 1999 0.86 ac lot ↓ 3% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.1/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Situated on approximately 0.86 acres in the desirable Justus Tiawah community, this charming 3-bedroom, 2-bath Solitaire manufactured home offers a spacious open-concept layout with a large living room featuring a beautiful fireplace that flows into the main dining area. The kitchen provides abundant cabinetry and storage along with a second dining space, perfect for entertaining or everyday use. The primary suite serves as a private retreat with double sinks, a walk-in shower, and a separate soaking tub. Outside features include a covered carport and a brand-new storage shed for added convenience. Recent updates include a new roof and new windows, offering peace of mind and long-term value

Key facts

• Beautiful fireplace
• Large living room
• Abundant cabinetry

Tags

• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• LARGE LIVING ROOM
• BEAUTIFUL FIREPLACE
• ABUNDANT CABINETRY
• SECOND DINING SPACE
• PRIVATE RETREAT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage; Carport
• Security: No safety shelter
• Utilities: Electricity available; Water available (rural); Septic tank
• Home design: Manufactured double wide; Single-story; Faces west; Permanent foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt and fiberglass roof
• Exterior features: Shed(s); No additional exterior features listed

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Oven; Range / Stove; Refrigerator; Electric water heater
• Flooring: Hardwood; Laminate; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (propane); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Vinyl windows; Laminate counters; Gas range connection
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-261 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $181k (17.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $159k (27.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $159k (27.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#90 in OK) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Justus-Tiawah (town): math 37% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #30 of 270 in OK (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 118 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 608 units permitted in Rogers County in 2024 (7 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Rogers County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $158,547 (27.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.86%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.11%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 11.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -25.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.15×
• Total profit: $-52,083
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -20.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.09×
• Total profit: $-66,656
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Oklahoma: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day notice; strongly landlord-favorable.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 74019

• Home prices YoY: -13.2%
• Active inventory: 118
• Price-to-rent: 11.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,585 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$274 /mo · $3,285/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$333
• Net cashflow: $-261

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,916

Max offer price $181,242

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $219,000 Active 50 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $219,000 Active 49 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $219,000 Active 48 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $219,000 Active 47 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $219,000 Active 45 DOM
6. 2026-06-10
   days on market $219,000 Active 42 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $219,000 Active 41 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $219,000 Active 40 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $219,000 Active 39 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $219,000 Active 35 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $219,000 Active 34 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $219,000 Active 33 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $219,000 Active 32 DOM
14. 2026-04-29
    listed $219,000 Active
15. 2025-08-02
    historical
16. 2024-11-21
    listed $225,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$3,285
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,522
• − Management: −$1,522
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$7,037
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,689
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,442/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Justus-Tiawah
• NCES district ID: 4015930
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $70,771
• Composite: 30.72/100
• National rank: #6166
• State rank: #30 of 270 in OK

Livability — Justice

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #90
• US rank: #10714

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Rogers County · 50,229 people
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• Population (ZIP): 21,023
• Household income: $84,342
• Rent vs Own: 17.1% rent · 82.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 150.0

Population outlook (Rogers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 100,211 people
• By 2030: 104,381 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 111,567 · +11.3%
• By 2050: 116,791 · +16.5%
• By 2075: 129,134 · +28.9%
• By 2100: 132,326 · +32.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 70% Native American 13% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rogers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.0) · D 21.6% · R 76.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.9pp toward R · 2008: -44.1pp · 2024: -55.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.0 2020: R+54.9 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+50.1 2008: R+44.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -32.22%
• Current HPI: 210.9691
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Tulsa, OK
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.55%
• F500 in state: 6

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OK)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	3	$48B

Price history

-2.7% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-29 Listed $219,000 MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2025-08-02 Listing Removed — MLS Technology, Inc.
• 2024-11-21 Listed $225,000 MLS Technology, Inc.

Property tax history

-5.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $41 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.