38 Devonshire Cir

Lakeview, AR 72642

$189,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Built 2007 · Other · Active · 98 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $917/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax + insurance: −$113
• HOA: −$75
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $-454/mo
• Annual: $-5,452/yr
• Cap rate: 3.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.30%
• DSCR: 0.54
• 1% rule: 0.49%
• Cash to close: $52,920

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $189k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-454 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (42.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (51.5% below list).
• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (51.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#88 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Mountain Home School District (town): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #40 of 238 in AR (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hackler Intermediate School (math 51% / reading 44%, grade D, #116 of 454 statewide, top 26%, 830 students, 46% FRL); Pinkston Middle School (math 55% / reading 50%, grade C+, #27 of 201 statewide, top 14%, 624 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Baxter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Baxter County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $189k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.