38 Devonshire Cir · Lakeview, AR 72642

$189,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,496 sqft · Other public records · 98 Days on market

Built 2007 $126/sqft · 14% below area Est $220k · 14% under $75/mo HOA · 8% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.9/30.0
• Schools +3.7/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Enjoy easy living in this all-brick townhome located in the desirable Devonshire 55+ community in Lakeview, Arkansas, just minutes from Bull Shoals Lake, the White River, and Mountain Home in the heart of the Twin Lakes area. Built in 2007, this single-level home with no stairs offers 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a split floor plan designed for comfort and privacy. The open-concept kitchen features abundant counter space, a generous breakfast bar, ample cabinetry, and a double pantry—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite includes a raised ceiling, walk-in shower, and large walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a 2-car attached garage, dedicated laundry room with sink and a convenient back door leading to the private deck. Residents enjoy community RV and boat parking, ideal for those who love spending time on nearby Bull Shoals Lake or fishing the world-famous White River.

Key facts

• Double pantry
• Open concept kitchen
• Raised ceiling

Tags

• ALL BRICK TOWNHOME
• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• GENEROUS BREAKFAST BAR
• DOUBLE PANTRY
• RAISED CEILING
• WALK IN SHOWER

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath other listed at $189k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-454 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $109k (42.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (51.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (51.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#88 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Mountain Home School District (town): math 45% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #40 of 238 in AR (top 17%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hackler Intermediate School (math 51% / reading 44%, grade D, #116 of 454 statewide, top 26%, 830 students, 46% FRL); Pinkston Middle School (math 55% / reading 50%, grade C+, #27 of 201 statewide, top 14%, 624 students, 46% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP; 47 units permitted in Baxter County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $20k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $19k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Baxter County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 98 days — a 9% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $116k; list at $189k implies a 63% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $91,748 (51.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 98 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 51% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.49% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.41%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.30%
• DSCR: 0.54
• GRM: 17.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $219,769
• List price: $189,000
• Delta: -14.00%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.40×
• Total profit: $73,935
• Equity at exit: $170,266

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.54×
• Total profit: $240,352
• Equity at exit: $367,185

Cash invested: $52,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72642

• Home prices YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 17.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $917 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$991
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $411/yr
• Insurance: −$79
• HOA: −$75
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $-454

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,493

Max offer price $108,743

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-347	-5% $-401	+0% $-454	+5% $-508	+10% $-787
Rent	-10% $-527	-5% $-491	+0% $-454	+5% $-418	+10% $-382
Rate	-1.0pp $-359	-0.5pp $-406	base $-454	+0.5pp $-503	+1.0pp $-553

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $47,250
• Closing costs: $5,670
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $75 · $900/yr

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $189,000 Active 98 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $189,000 Active 97 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $189,000 Active 95 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $189,000 Active 94 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $189,000 Active 93 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $189,000 Active 92 DOM
7. 2026-06-15
   days on market $189,000 Active 91 DOM
8. 2026-06-14
   days on market $189,000 Active 89 DOM
9. 2026-06-12
   days on market $189,000 Active 88 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $189,000 Active 85 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $189,000 Active 84 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $189,000 Active 83 DOM
13. 2026-06-05
    days on market $189,000 Active 80 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $189,000 Active 78 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $189,000 Active 77 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $189,000 Active 76 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $189,000 Active 75 DOM
18. 2026-03-16
    listed $189,000 Active 942-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1124 chars)

    Enjoy easy living in this all-brick townhome located in the desirable Devonshire 55+ community in Lakeview, Arkansas, just minutes from Bull Shoals Lake, the White River, and Mountain Home in the heart of the Twin Lakes area. Built in 2007, this single-level home with no stairs offers 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a split floor plan designed for comfort and privacy. The open-concept kitchen features abundant counter space, a generous breakfast bar, ample cabinetry, and a double pantry—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite includes a raised ceiling, walk-in shower, and large walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a 2-car attached garage, dedicated laundry room with sink and a convenient back door leading to the private deck. Residents enjoy community RV and boat parking, ideal for those who love spending time on nearby Bull Shoals Lake or fishing the world-famous White River. Located close to the city walking trail, local bank, and post office, this home offers comfortable, low-maintenance living in one of the most scenic areas of North Central Arkansas.

19. 2026-03-16
    listed $189,000 New Listing 1124-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1124 chars)

    Enjoy easy living in this all-brick townhome located in the desirable Devonshire 55+ community in Lakeview, Arkansas, just minutes from Bull Shoals Lake, the White River, and Mountain Home in the heart of the Twin Lakes area. Built in 2007, this single-level home with no stairs offers 2 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms with a split floor plan designed for comfort and privacy. The open-concept kitchen features abundant counter space, a generous breakfast bar, ample cabinetry, and a double pantry—perfect for everyday living and entertaining. The spacious primary suite includes a raised ceiling, walk-in shower, and large walk-in closet. Additional highlights include a 2-car attached garage, dedicated laundry room with sink and a convenient back door leading to the private deck. Residents enjoy community RV and boat parking, ideal for those who love spending time on nearby Bull Shoals Lake or fishing the world-famous White River. Located close to the city walking trail, local bank, and post office, this home offers comfortable, low-maintenance living in one of the most scenic areas of North Central Arkansas.

20. 2025-09-15
    price $199,900
21. 2025-08-19
    listed $204,900 Active
22. 2016-09-06
    soldstatus $116,000
23. 2007-04-16
    soldstatus $130,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AR · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $411 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,210 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$799/yr (+$67/mo · 194.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,010
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,587
• − Property taxes: −$411
• − Insurance: −$945
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$881
• − Management: −$881
• − HOA: −$900
• − Depreciation: −$5,498
• Taxable loss: −$9,093
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,182
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,270/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mountain Home School District
• NCES district ID: 0500043
• Math proficiency: 45% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $36,966
• Composite: 37.4/100
• National rank: #4424
• State rank: #40 of 238 in AR

Livability — Lakeview

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #88
• US rank: #9722

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakeview, AR
• City population: 1,724
• Population (ZIP): 1,724

Population outlook (Baxter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 39,886 people
• By 2030: 39,226 · -1.7%
• By 2040: 37,810 · -5.2%
• By 2050: 36,287 · -9.0%
• By 2075: 32,965 · -17.4%
• By 2100: 28,002 · -29.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (94%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 94% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Serbian 4% Lithuanian 3%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baxter

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+56.9) · D 20.7% · R 77.6% · Other 1.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -25.3pp toward R · 2008: -31.6pp · 2024: -56.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+56.9 2020: R+53.3 2016: R+53.6 2012: R+44.0 2008: R+31.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 13.66%
• Current HPI: 237.0425
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

+45.4% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-16 Listed $189,000 MHMLS
• 2026-03-16 Listed $189,000 CARMLS
• 2025-09-15 Price Changed $199,900 MHMLS
• 2025-08-19 Listed $204,900 MHMLS
• 2016-09-06 Sold (Public Records) $116,000 Public Records
• 2007-04-16 Sold (Public Records) $130,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-6.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $411 · -16.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.