21991 Conrail Rd

Bridgeville, DE 19933

$289,900D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Built 2020 · Manufactured · Pending · 5 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,916/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax + insurance: −$184
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-191/mo
• Annual: $-2,294/yr
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.66%
• Cash to close: $81,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (33.9% below list).
• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $192k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#48 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Seaford School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #15 of 26 in DE (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.7% in Bridgeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.