21991 Conrail Rd · Bridgeville, DE 19933

$289,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,620 sqft · Manufactured public records · 5 Days on market

Built 2020 0.94 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +9.7/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 21991 Conrail Rd in Bridgeville, DE — a 3-bedroom, 2-bath home situated on a generously sized lot with a fenced backyard that offers the perfect space for entertaining, relaxing, or everyday enjoyment. Inside, the open-concept layout connects the kitchen, dining, living, and family rooms, creating a spacious and functional flow for daily living. The primary suite features a private bath and a large walk-in closet, while the second full bath is conveniently located near bedrooms 2 and 3. The property offers a great balance of indoor comfort and outdoor space, with the backyard providing a defined area for gatherings, pets, or play. Ideally located with convenient access to R

Key facts

• 0.94 acre lot
• Built 2020
• Listed 5 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $290k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-191 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (11.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $192k (33.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $192k (33.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.5% vs local median 3.7% in Bridgeville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#48 in DE) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: health & safety A, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Seaford School District (suburban): math 25% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #15 of 26 in DE (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 108 active listings in the ZIP; 4,354 units permitted in Sussex County in 2024 (344 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $3k appreciation (1.1% local appreciation)).
• Sussex County population projected at +25% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 5 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wind risk, 75% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $191,569 (33.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.66% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 12.6

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.14% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.94×
• Total profit: $-4,894
• Equity at exit: $101,109

10-year hold

• IRR: 3.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.45×
• Total profit: $36,366
• Equity at exit: $136,037

Cash invested: $81,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 70 Landlord-Friendly
• State Delaware: 70 Landlord-Friendly · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Court of Common Pleas hears L&T; moderate-paced. No state rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 19933

• Home prices YoY: 0.4%
• Active inventory: 108
• Price-to-rent: 12.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,916 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,520
• Tax from tax record: −$63 /mo · $762/yr
• Insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$402
• Net cashflow: $-191

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,158

Max offer price $256,132

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $72,475
• Closing costs: $8,697
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-06
   listed $289,900 Active
3. 2026-03-27
   historical $289,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast DE · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $762 · $63/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,222 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$460/yr (+$38/mo · 60.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 71% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 75% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,988
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,239
• − Property taxes: −$762
• − Insurance: −$1,450
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,839
• − Management: −$1,839
• − Depreciation: −$8,433
• Taxable loss: −$7,574
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,818
• After-tax cash flow: $-476/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Seaford School District
• NCES district ID: 1001530
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,427
• Composite: 28.07/100
• National rank: #6835
• State rank: #15 of 26 in DE

Livability — Bridgeville

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #48
• US rank: #13807

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C+ Crime B Employment C Housing C+ Health & safety A User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 11,409
• Population (ZIP): 11,409

Population outlook (Sussex County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 248,853 people
• By 2030: 264,464 · +6.3%
• By 2040: 290,980 · +16.9%
• By 2050: 311,259 · +25.1%
• By 2075: 352,488 · +41.6%
• By 2100: 367,406 · +47.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.64)
• Race & ethnicity: White 52% Hispanic / Latino 22% Black 21% Two or more races 10%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Hispanic 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Spanish 16% French/Haitian/Cajun 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Sussex

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.9% · R 54.9% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -2.4pp toward R · 2008: -8.6pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: R+11.2 2016: R+22.0 2012: R+13.0 2008: R+8.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.14%
• Current HPI: 283.0199
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-04-06 Listed $289,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-03-27 Coming Soon $289,900 BRIGHT MLS

Property tax history

+26.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $762 · +12.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.