2112 Modoc Dr

Harker Heights, TX 76548

$219,000D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,191 sqft · Built 1999 · SingleFamily · Pending · 60 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,888/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax + insurance: −$527
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$396
• Net cashflow: $-184/mo
• Annual: $-2,213/yr
• Cap rate: 5.28%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.61%
• DSCR: 0.84
• 1% rule: 0.86%
• Cash to close: $61,320

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-184 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (14.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $189k (13.8% below list).
• It's been on market 60 days — a 3% lower offer ($212k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $186k (14.9% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#61 in TX, #2,271 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Killeen ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #524 of 826 in TX (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Mountain View El (math 34% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,883 of 4,322 statewide, top 44%, 787 students, 45% FRL); Union Grove Middle (math 41% / reading 44%, grade D-, #553 of 1,662 statewide, top 34%, 633 students, 40% FRL); Harker Heights H S (math 29% / reading 60%, grade F, #652 of 1,632 statewide, top 43%, 2,359 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 272 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 58% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 3,222 units permitted in Bell County in 2024 (246 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Bell County population projected at +21% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $31k (12%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $159k; 38% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 3.8% in Harker Heights — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 60 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.