311 Walnut St

Turtle Lake, ND 58575

$81,000A-

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · Built 1959 · SingleFamily · Active · 36 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,020/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$425
• Tax + insurance: −$99
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $282/mo
• Annual: $3,382/yr
• Cap rate: 10.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.91%
• DSCR: 1.66
• 1% rule: 1.26%
• Cash to close: $22,680

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $81k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $81k).
• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $79k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($560 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#198 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment D+.
• Turtle Lake-Mercer 72 (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #69 of 169 in ND (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in McLean County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• McLean County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $81k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.