311 Walnut St · Turtle Lake, ND 58575

$81,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,534 sqft · SingleFamily · 36 Days on market

Built 1959 6,970 sqft lot Est $126k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +29.2/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.6/10.0
• Appreciation +6.7/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• Parquet floors
• Attached garage
• Metal siding

Tags

• MAIN FLOOR LIVING
• METAL SIDING
• PARQUET FLOORS
• MAIN FLOOR LAUNDRY
• PARTIALLY FINISHED BASEMENT
• ATTACHED GARAGE

Property features AI

Exterior

• Lot: Level, rectangular lot; Paved city street frontage; Public maintained road; Lot dimensions approximately 50 x 140
• Parking: Attached garage with inside entrance; Garage faces front; Driveway; Alley access
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available and connected; Electricity connected; Cable available; Phone available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels
• Construction: Metal siding; Asphalt roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built with traditional residential construction
• Exterior features: Patio; Shed(s)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Range hood; Refrigerator
• Basement: Concrete basement
• Bedrooms: Total rooms: 4
• Flooring: Vinyl; Carpet; Laminate; Parquet
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Ceiling fan(s); Wall/window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Central vacuum; High-speed internet
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $81k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $282 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $81k).
• Recommended offer: $79k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#198 in ND) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools C-, crime C-, employment D+.
• Turtle Lake-Mercer 72 (rural): math 50% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #69 of 169 in ND (top 41%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 20% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 9 active listings in the ZIP; 43 units permitted in McLean County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $3k of equity ($560 loan paydown + $3k appreciation (3.4% local appreciation)).
• McLean County population projected at +48% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (3.4% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $23k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 10, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$32k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 36 days — a 3% lower offer ($79k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $81k implies a 170% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1959 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $78,570 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 36 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1959 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.26% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 14.91%
• DSCR: 1.66
• GRM: 6.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $125,788
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
519 Walnut St	0.16mi	2/1.5	1,453 (-5%)	7mo	$119,000	$82	76
304 Charles St	0.26mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,586 (+3%)	18mo	$50,000	$32	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.38% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.29×
• Total profit: $29,327
• Equity at exit: $38,150

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.41×
• Total profit: $77,264
• Equity at exit: $60,174

Cash invested: $22,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58575

• Home prices YoY: 3.2%
• Active inventory: 9
• Price-to-rent: 6.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,020 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$425
• Tax from tax record: −$65 /mo · $784/yr
• Insurance: −$34
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$214
• Net cashflow: $282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $663

Max offer price $81,000

Occupancy floor 67%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,250
• Closing costs: $2,430
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $81,000 Active 36 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $81,000 Active 35 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $81,000 Active 34 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $81,000 Active 33 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $81,000 Active 31 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $81,000 Active 30 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $81,000 Active 27 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $81,000 Active 26 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $81,000 Active 25 DOM
10. 2026-06-05
    days on market $81,000 Active 23 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $81,000 Active 21 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $81,000 Active 20 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $81,000 Active 19 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $81,000 Active 18 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    price $99,900
16. 2026-05-14
    listed $129,000 Active
17. 2005-05-03
    soldstatus $30,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $784 · $65/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $794 · $66/mo
• Expected delta: +$10/yr (+$1/mo · 1.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,238
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,537
• − Property taxes: −$784
• − Insurance: −$405
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$979
• − Management: −$979
• − Depreciation: −$2,356
• Taxable income: $2,198
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$527
• After-tax cash flow: $2,855/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Turtle Lake-Mercer 72
• NCES district ID: 3818500
• Math proficiency: 50% ▲ 20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $48,052
• Composite: 42.66/100
• National rank: #6804
• State rank: #69 of 169 in ND

Livability — Turtle Lake

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #198
• US rank: #13852

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Turtle Lake, ND
• Population (ZIP): 904

Population outlook (McLean County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 11,405 people
• By 2030: 12,337 · +8.2%
• By 2040: 14,426 · +26.5%
• By 2050: 16,850 · +47.7%
• By 2075: 24,191 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 30,714 · +169.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 1% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 17% Scottish 5% Estonian 3%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Other Indo-European 5% Spanish 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · McLean

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.1) · D 20.2% · R 78.4% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.1pp toward R · 2008: -19.0pp · 2024: -58.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.1 2020: R+53.6 2016: R+53.0 2012: R+30.0 2008: R+19.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.38%
• Current HPI: 108.0978
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+233.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Price Changed $99,900 GNMLS
• 2026-05-14 Listed $129,000 GNMLS
• 2005-05-03 Sold (Public Records) $30,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $784 · +2.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.