21312 Warrior Dr

Matoaca, VA 23803

$249,000D

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,104 sqft · Built 1980 · SingleFamily · Pending · 108 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,601/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$246
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-288/mo
• Annual: $-3,451/yr
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.95%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.64%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (35.7% below list).
• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $160k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#178 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Matoaca Elementary (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 619 students, 81% FRL); Matoaca Middle (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D+, #257 of 342 statewide, top 77%, 865 students, 45% FRL); Matoaca High (math 49% / reading 82%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,630 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $249k implies a 419% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 38% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in Matoaca — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.