21312 Warrior Dr · Matoaca, VA 23803

$249,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,104 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 108 Days on market

Built 1980 10,497 sqft lot $226/sqft · 7% below area Est $268k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.6/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +5.7/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in South Chesterfield offers fresh interior paint and brand-new vinyl flooring throughout. Featuring 1,104 sq ft of living space, this home provides a functional layout, central heat and air and a spacious backyard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Ideal for first-time buyers looking for low-maintenance property. Conveniently located with easy access to local amenities. A great opportunity—just unpack and enjoy. Close to Ft Lee, shopping, hospital and Interstate.

Key facts

• Spacious yard
• Central heat and air
• Move in ready

Tags

• MOVE IN READY
• SPACIOUS YARD
• CENTRAL HEAT AND AIR

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $249k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-288 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (20.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $160k (35.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $160k (35.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.8% in Matoaca — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#178 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Chesterfield County Public School District (suburban): math 52% / reading 64% proficiency, ranked #57 of 131 in VA (top 44%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Matoaca Elementary (math 37% / reading 52%, grade F, #827 of 1,108 statewide, top 77%, 619 students, 81% FRL); Matoaca Middle (math 46% / reading 48%, grade D+, #257 of 342 statewide, top 77%, 865 students, 45% FRL); Matoaca High (math 49% / reading 82%, grade B, #204 of 319 statewide, top 65%, 1,630 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools average 55% FRL vs 26% district-wide (29 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.9%/yr); 294 active listings in the ZIP; 2,307 units permitted in Chesterfield County in 2024 (462 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (1.4% local appreciation)).
• Chesterfield County population projected at +20% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 108 days — a 9% lower offer ($227k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $48k; list at $249k implies a 419% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 38% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $160,051 (35.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 108 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.91%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.95%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 13.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $267,742
• List price: $249,000
• Delta: -7.00%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5754 Fox Maple Ter	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,130 (+2%)	9mo	$315,000	$279	80
5743 Fox Hunt Trl	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,194 (+8%)	12mo	$320,000	$268	68
6612 Madison St	0.65mi	3/1.5	1,104 (0%)	5mo	$235,000	$213	65
6609 Madison St	0.62mi	3/2.0	1,104 (0%)	7mo	$270,000	$245	63
21104 Matoaca Rd	0.72mi	3/1.5	1,056 (-4%)	2mo	$255,000	$241	57
5902 Ferintosh Pl	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,124 (+2%)	11mo	$286,500	$255	55
5919 Ferintosh Ln	0.71mi	3/2.0	1,056 (-4%)	9mo	$307,000	$291	50
21136 Baileys Grove Dr	0.32mi	3/2.0	1,248 (+13%)	13mo	$280,000	$224	50
21200 Deodora Dr	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,144 (+4%)	12mo	$265,000	$232	50
21204 Madison Ct	0.64mi	3/1.5	1,008 (-9%)	13mo	$235,000	$233	45
21622 Beverley St	0.70mi	3/1.0	960 (-13%)	3mo	$245,000	$255	41
21338 Deodora Ct	0.72mi	3/2.0	1,256 (+14%)	9mo	$265,000	$211	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

1.45% appreciation · 5.89% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -0.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.95×
• Total profit: $-3,439
• Equity at exit: $90,870

10-year hold

• IRR: 5.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.68×
• Total profit: $47,623
• Equity at exit: $125,431

Cash invested: $69,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23803

• Home prices YoY: 0.3%
• Rents YoY: 5.9%
• Active inventory: 294
• Price-to-rent: 13.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,601 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax from tax record: −$142 /mo · $1,710/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$336
• Net cashflow: $-288

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,965

Max offer price $198,193

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-147	-5% $-217	+0% $-288	+5% $-358	+10% $-429
Rent	-10% $-414	-5% $-351	+0% $-288	+5% $-224	+10% $-161
Rate	-1.0pp $-162	-0.5pp $-224	base $-288	+0.5pp $-352	+1.0pp $-418

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,250
• Closing costs: $7,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 6 events

1. 2026-05-14
   price $249,000 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in South Chesterfield offers fresh interior paint and brand-new vinyl flooring throughout. Featuring 1,104 sq ft of living space, this home provides a functional layout, central heat and air and a spacious backyard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Ideal for first-time buyers looking for low-maintenance property. Conveniently located with easy access to local amenities. A great opportunity—just unpack and enjoy. Close to Ft Lee, shopping, hospital and Interstate.

2. 2026-04-09
   price $249,900 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in South Chesterfield offers fresh interior paint and brand-new vinyl flooring throughout. Featuring 1,104 sq ft of living space, this home provides a functional layout, central heat and air and a spacious backyard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Ideal for first-time buyers looking for low-maintenance property. Conveniently located with easy access to local amenities. A great opportunity—just unpack and enjoy. Close to Ft Lee, shopping, hospital and Interstate.

3. 2026-03-21
   price $259,000 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in South Chesterfield offers fresh interior paint and brand-new vinyl flooring throughout. Featuring 1,104 sq ft of living space, this home provides a functional layout, central heat and air and a spacious backyard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Ideal for first-time buyers looking for low-maintenance property. Conveniently located with easy access to local amenities. A great opportunity—just unpack and enjoy. Close to Ft Lee, shopping, hospital and Interstate.

4. 2026-02-01
   listed $279,000 Active 498-char remark

   Show marketing remark (498 chars)

   This 3-bedroom, 2-bath home in South Chesterfield offers fresh interior paint and brand-new vinyl flooring throughout. Featuring 1,104 sq ft of living space, this home provides a functional layout, central heat and air and a spacious backyard perfect for outdoor enjoyment. Ideal for first-time buyers looking for low-maintenance property. Conveniently located with easy access to local amenities. A great opportunity—just unpack and enjoy. Close to Ft Lee, shopping, hospital and Interstate.

5. 1989-05-31
   soldstatus $47,950
6. 1981-05-22
   soldstatus $37,300

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,710 · $142/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,042 · $170/mo
• Expected delta: +$332/yr (+$28/mo · 19.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 38% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,206
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,948
• − Property taxes: −$1,710
• − Insurance: −$1,245
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,536
• − Management: −$1,536
• − Depreciation: −$7,244
• Taxable loss: −$8,013
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,923
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,528/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chesterfield County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5100840
• Math proficiency: 52% ▼ -30.00%
• Reading proficiency: 64% ▼ -15.00%
• Median HH income: $72,821
• Composite: 51.56/100
• National rank: #1712
• State rank: #57 of 131 in VA

Livability — Matoaca

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #178
• US rank: #5429

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Matoaca, VA
• County: Chesterfield County · 406,988 people
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• Population (ZIP): 42,012
• Household income: $57,813
• Rent vs Own: 48.9% rent · 51.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 2485.0

Population outlook (Chesterfield County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 377,190 people
• By 2030: 395,710 · +4.9%
• By 2040: 427,694 · +13.4%
• By 2050: 452,706 · +20.0%
• By 2075: 505,533 · +34.0%
• By 2100: 521,282 · +38.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 58% White 31% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Romanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Chesterfield

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+9.0) · D 53.8% · R 44.8% · Other 1.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +16.4pp toward D · 2008: -7.5pp · 2024: 9.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+9.0 2020: D+6.7 2016: R+2.2 2012: R+7.1 2008: R+7.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 1.45%
• Current HPI: 480.5365
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.89%
• Metro: Richmond, VA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+567.6% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-14 Price Changed $249,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-09 Price Changed $249,900 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-21 Price Changed $259,000 CVRMLS
• 2026-02-01 Listed $279,000 CVRMLS
• 1989-05-31 Sold (Public Records) $47,950 Public Records
• 1981-05-22 Sold (Public Records) $37,300 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,710 · +0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.